The overall market sentiment is bearish, and the price of corn futures is weak and volatile | Corn_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Research report text

1. Market review

Overall market sentiment is bearish as supply pressures materialize.cornThe main futures contract C2303 opened at 2,818 yuan/ton and closed at 2,811 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.25%. The highest price was 2,843 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2,806 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 2,820 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 263490 lots, the position was 731920 lots, +13966 lots.

2. News situation

1. News from China Feed Industry Information Network The mainstream purchase prices of corn in North and South ports, North China and Shandong today are as follows:

The purchase price of new grain with a moisture content of 14.5 and a content weight of 720 or more in the Jinzhou Port area is 2,860-2,890 yuan/ton, and the flat-load price of corn with a moisture content of 15% is 2,900-2,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from yesterday.

The purchase price of new grain with a moisture content of 14.5 and a content weight of 720 or more in the Bayuquan Port area is 2,860-2,900 yuan/ton, and the flat-load price of corn with a moisture content of 15% is 2,900-2,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from yesterday.

The transaction price of corn bulk grain with 15% moisture in Shekou Port area of ​​Guangdong was 3050-3060 yuan/ton, which was the same as yesterday; the price of first-grade corn was 3110-3120 yuan/ton, which was the same as yesterday.

The mainstream purchase price of new corn with 14% moisture content in Shandong area is 2900-3110 yuan/ton.

The purchase price of new corn traders with 15% moisture content in North China is 2740-2860 yuan/ton.

The continuous improvement of logistics in North China, the increase in the import of grain sources in the Northeast, and the increased willingness of local grain holders to ship, and the sufficient supply in the market suppressed the drop in spot prices. The arrival of goods has decreased significantly, and the purchase price of some enterprises has been adjusted back.

2. Shipping fee information for international grain ships to Chinese ports on December 12, 2022

On December 12, the shipping fee for international grain ships from the US Gulf to Chinese ports was US$51/ton; the shipping fee from Brazil to Chinese ports was US$49/ton.

3. Mysteel data: corn consumption statistics of 126 corn deep processing enterprises across the country

According to the statistics of Mysteel agricultural products, in the 49 weeks of 2022 (December 1-December 7), the main 126 corn deep-processing enterprises in the country (including 69starch35 alcohol and 22 amino acid companies) consumed a total of 1.037 million tons of corn, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week; a year-on-year decrease of 143,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.09%.

4. Mysteel data: Tracking progress of grain sales in major corn producing areas across the country (20221208)

As of December 8, according to the statistics of the Mysteel corn team, the grain sales progress of farmers in major corn producing areas across the country was 29%, an increase of 3% over the previous period and an increase of 5% over the same period last year.

5. Corn stock situation:

According to the research data of the Mysteel corn team, on December 2, the total corn stocks in the four northern ports totaled 2.654 million tons, a decrease of 74,000 tons from the previous week; the total shipments from the four northern ports that week totaled 557,000 tons, an increase of 300,000 tons from the previous week.

Mysteel data: Corn and grain inventory statistics in Guangdong Port: As of December 2, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port totaled 346,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 501,000 tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from last week; Imported sorghum was 694,000 tons, an increase of 67,000 tons from last week; imported barley was 36,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from last week.

According to the latest survey data of the Mysteel corn team on 96 major corn deep-processing manufacturers in 12 regions across the country, in the 49th week of 2022, as of December 7, the total corn inventory of processing enterprises was 1.973 million tons, an increase of 4.61% from last week.

6. Weekly Statistics on Quarantine Shipment of US Corn Exports to China (20221201)

Mysteel agricultural product statistics show that in the week ending December 1, 2022, the United States shipped 279,563 tons of corn to China (mainland), compared with 70,483 tons shipped to China in the previous week; China’s corn export inspections accounted for 53.3% of the total export inspections for the week. In the past four weeks as of December 1, the cumulative shipments of corn from the United States to China for inspection was 714,573 tons.

7. USDA raises corn ending stocks for 2022/23

In its December supply and demand report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicted that U.S. corn stocks would reach 1.257 billion bushels by the end of August 2023, an increase of 75 million bushels from the November forecast of 1.182 billion bushels. Analysts had expected 1.237 billion bushels before the report.

The increase in stocks is entirely due to USDA lowering its 2022/23 corn export target by 75 million bushels to 2.075 billion bushels from 2.15 billion bushels forecast last month. This reflects an increase in exports driven by a bumper corn harvest in Brazil, as well as an improved outlook for Ukrainian exports from a 120-day extension of the Black Sea export agreement from Nov. 18.

USDA raised its Ukrainian corn export forecast to 17.5 million tons from 15.5 million tons.

This month, the US Department of Agriculture maintained its forecast for South American corn production and exports unchanged. Among them, Brazil’s corn production is expected to reach a record 126 million tons, and exports are expected to be 47 million tons, higher than the previous year’s 116 million tons and 44.5 million tons respectively.

3. Summary

At present, it is the period of seasonal concentration of new grains. There was a certain selling pressure on the grassroots grain sources before the year. With the optimization of epidemic prevention and control, the logistics in the main production areas continued to improve, and the grassroots grain sales in the production areas accelerated. The willingness of traders to ship goods has increased significantly, the overall volume of the market has increased, and the number of vehicles arriving at the factory door of deep-processing enterprises has increased, and the purchase price has dropped. In addition, the market generally expects that a large amount of Brazilian corn will arrive in Hong Kong in January next year, which will squeeze the market share of domestic corn. The market outlook will focus on the amount of new grain.

Sina Statement: This news is reproduced from Sina’s cooperative media. Sina.com publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information, which does not mean agreeing with its views or confirming its description. Article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.