Source: Hualong Futures Author: Hualong Futures
Research report text
【Rebar】
Market review:Rebar 2305 rose 0.49% last week.
Fundamentals:According to my steel network data, the weekly output of rebar last week was 2.4775 million tons, a decrease of 238,800 tons from the previous month, the inventory of steel mills was 1.6811 million tons, a decrease of 110,200 tons from the previous month, and the social inventory was 4.3656 million tons, an increase of 467,000 tons from the previous month. The weekly output of the five major steel products was 8.8368 million tons, a decrease of 335,900 tons from the previous month, and the inventory in the two warehouses was 13.857 million tons, an increase of 602,600 tons from the previous month.
Core point of view:Under the background of a series of policy overweights, real estate is expected to recover to support the recovery of steel demand. The monetary policy is stable and loose, and the steelmaking profits of steel mills are at a low level. Steel prices may still be in a trend of shocks and rebounds in the medium term.
Trading straregy:Activist investors hold more than one short position.
【iron orestone,coking coal、Coke】
Market review:Last week, iron ore 2305 was the same as the previous week, coking coal 2305 fell 2.75%, and coke 2305 fell 1%.
Fundamentals:According to my steel network data, the total global iron ore shipments in the week of December 19-25 were 32.472 million tons, an increase of 522,000 tons from the previous month, and the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Pakistan were 28.16 million tons, an increase of 522,000 tons from the previous month. The total volume of arrivals from China’s 45 ports was 26.823 million tons, an increase of 6.032 million tons from the previous month; the total volume of arrivals from the six northern ports was 14.555 million tons, an increase of 3.251 million tons from the previous month. On December 30, the iron ore port inventory in 45 ports across the country was 132 million tons, a decrease of 1.5101 million tons from the previous month. The port inventory of coking coal was 1.145 million tons, an increase of 69,000 tons from the previous month. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, coking coal imports in November were 5.7322 million tons, down 7.66% from the previous month.
Core point of view:Relevant state departments held a meeting with some power and steel companies on January 3, planning to allow four companies to import coal from Australia first, and the ban may be lifted as early as April 1. The recent trend of coking coal and coke may be weaker than that of steel, and steelmaking profits are expected to pick up.
Trading straregy:It is recommended to adopt the arbitrage strategy of multi-steel empty coking coal/coke.
Rebar
spot analysis
As of January 06, 2023, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 4,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of rebar in Tianjin was 4,010 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day. Rising 20 yuan / ton.
As of January 06, 2023, the profit of threaded spot blast furnace steelmaking is 209.45 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the profit center has moved down, which is in the middle and low of the blast furnace steelmaking profit curve in the past three years department.
As of August 19, 2022, the profit of threaded spot electric furnace steelmaking is 187.98 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the profit center has moved downward, which is in the middle and low part of the electric furnace steelmaking profit curve in the past three years.
supply analysis
According to the data on January 06, 2023, the operating rate of blast furnaces in China was 38.69%, and that of Tangshan blast furnaces was 78.26%, a decrease of 0.42% and an increase of 21.91% compared with the previous period.
As of January 06, 2023, the weekly output of rebar and wire rod in China’s major steel mills was 2.4775 million tons and 1.174 million tons, a decrease of 238,800 tons and an increase of 7,700 tons respectively from last week. low level.
inventory analysis
iron ore
spot analysis
As of January 06, 2023, Qingdao Port: The spot price of PB powder 61.5% is 837 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 2 yuan/wet ton from the previous value.
As of January 06, 2023, the price of 6-8mm steel scrap in Tangshan area was 2,715 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Increase by 2 yuan/ton.
supply analysis
As of November 2022, the import volume of iron ore and concentrate is 98.85 million tons, an increase of 3.87 million tons from the previous month; the average import price of iron ore and concentrate is US$94.34/ton, a decrease of 2.47 from the previous month USD/ton.
As of November 2022, Australia’s iron ore shipments were 70.023 million tons, a decrease of 3.548 million tons from the previous month; Brazil’s iron ore shipments were 21.715 million tons, a decrease of 3.044 million tons from the first half of the month.
As of January 05, 2023, the freight rate of Western Australia-Qingdao iron ore is US$7.2/ton, an increase of US$0.03/ton from the previous day; the freight rate of Tubarang-Qingdao iron ore is US$18.46/ton, which is higher than the previous day The daily drop was US$0.08/ton; the freight rate of India-Qingdao iron ore was US$13.8/ton, unchanged from the previous day.
inventory analysis
As of January 4, 2023, the average number of days available for the imported ore inventory of domestic large and medium-sized steel mills is 25 days, an increase of 4 days from the first half of the month.
coking coal
spot analysis
supply analysis
As of November 2022, the monthly output of raw coal in Shanxi was 112.098 million tons, an increase of 9.4 million tons from the previous month; the monthly output of raw coal in Shaanxi was 63.706 million tons, an increase of 921,000 tons from the previous month; the monthly output of raw coal in Inner Mongolia was 100.778 million tons, The monthly output of raw coal in Gansu was 4.414 million tons, an increase of 308,000 tons from the previous month; the monthly output of Henan raw coal was 8.161 million tons, an increase of 554,000 tons from the previous month.
inventory analysis
As of January 06, 2023, the number of days that PCI coal can be used is 11.1 days in North China Steel Mills, an increase of 0.31 days from last week; 18.45 days in East China Steel Mills, an increase of 0.35 days from last week; 14.47 days in Central China Steel Mills, An increase of 1.03 days from last week; South China steel mills were 27.89 days, an increase of 0.9 days from last week; Northeast steel mills were 12.98 days, an increase of 0.12 days from last week; Northwest steel mills were 12.26 days, a decrease of 2.32 days from last week; Steel mills had 19.92 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from last week.
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