MILANO – An uncertain start is expected for European stock exchanges: futures travel mixed as investors continue to digest the inflation data in the US in March, which jumped to 8.5% per year, just above analysts’ expectations. Investors’ eyes will be on the ECB board scheduled for tomorrow and on the developments of the conflict in Ukraine. Futures on the Euro Stoxx mark + 0.64%, those on the Dax in Frankfurt are up by 0.50%, while those on the London Ftse 100 are down 0.16%.
Treasury yields have stabilized at lower levels than before the inflation data: the market has “relaxed” a bit by looking at the “core” inflation numbers, which turned out to be slightly below expectations and the possibility of further acceleration in the squeeze of the Federal Reserve has been removed from the table. However, the position of the most rigid American central bankers, such as that expressed by James Bullard, from the St. Louis Fed, in an interview with the FT: It’s a “fantasy,” says Bullard, to think that modest interest rate hikes can tame inflation. Rather, the banker argues, the Fed must curb economic activity to deal with rising prices, and it must be more aggressive in its efforts to eradicate the highest inflation in four decades.
Positive day in Asia, despite the volatility on Chinese prices which remain under pressure due to anti-Covid restrictions. Shanghai, after losing about half a percentage point, is now up and gaining 0.31%. Tokyo is up by around 2%, Hong Kong is up by 0.89% and Seoul is up by 1.79%.
On the commodity market, the prices of petrolium recovered ground in Asian markets after posting losses in the wake of weak economic data reported by China and Japan which fueled concerns about growth and demand for crude in the world‘s major consumer countries. Futures on WTI contracts rose 0.29% to $ 100.8 a barrel while Brent futures gained 0.42% to $ 105.15 a barrel. However, there remains a signal of weakness that still comes from Beijing, which recorded a trade surplus of 47.38 billion dollars in March, up on the 11.83 billion of 12 months ago and on the 22.4 billion estimated by analysts, discounting the sharp drop in imports amid tight nationwide restrictions to counter the wave of Covidi-19. According to data from the Customs Administration, exports grew by 14.7% (slowing down but better than forecasts), while imports suffered an unexpected decline of 0.1%, the first since August of the year. 2020. In the first three months of the year, the trade balance is positive for 163.33 billion dollars.