For the 38th consecutive trading day, the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks exceeded RMB 1 trillion.
Related reports
The essence of the morning meeting: short-term gains will not change the mid-to-long-term volatility and rising trend, industry configuration is both offensive and defensive
Looking back at Thursday’s A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a volatile upward pattern.Shanghai IndexAfter opening low, it maintained a strong volatility. At the end of the trading session, the Shanghai stock index rose again, attacking the 3700-point integer mark, and came out of a beautiful tail-end market; while the GEM opened higher today and moved higher at the end of the trading session, it rose again, showing a V-shape. pattern. From the disk perspective, the strong performance of cyclical stocks led the index to rise strongly, while the performance of other sectors was different, and the structural market was obvious in the market differentiation.
Just likeSoochow SecuritiesAs mentioned, the market continued its upward trend on Thursday, especially the CSI 500 and the Shanghai Composite Index, which maintained a strong upward momentum. In the short term, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is approaching the 3,700-point integer mark and the year high in February. Trends, especially big finance and Chinese prefixes, and those that represent the direction of growthGrowth Enterprise Market Index, The semi-annual line has strong support and may usher in a rebound trend in the short term.
Soochow SecuritiesFurther analysis shows that the current market is relatively abundant in liquidity and there is no systemic risk in the market. However, the hot spots on the disk continue to rotate and the difficulty of participation has increased. It is recommended that steady investors pay attention to the low-valued blue-chip impetuous opportunities before the index breakthrough. , And activist investors may wish to pay more attention to the high-prosperity sector, absorb the dips, and try to achieve a balanced allocation of positions.
In terms of market outlook,Centaline SecuritiesSaid that the trading volume of the two cities has remained above 1 trillion yuan for 37 consecutive trading days, and large market value sectors such as cyclical industries, core assets and large finance have taken turns to lead the rise. The characteristics of orderly entry of over-the-counter funds to do more are more prominent. The Shanghai stock index is more likely to challenge the new high this year. It is recommended to pay close attention to changes in policy and funding.
in addition,Founder SecuritiesThe research believes that due to the price drop and the volume increase, there is still callback pressure in the short-term market, and it is arranged sideways in the way of intraday volatility. As we expected, it will run below the high of 3731 points during the year. , Only with sufficient momentum, the market will effectively break through 3731 points. Operationally, bargain-hunting focuses on finance, the prefix “in”, the concept of “carbon neutral”, electric power, military industry, high-end manufacturing, environmental protection, and second-tier blue-chip stocks whose stock prices are at the bottom. Continue to wait and see for traditional consumer stocks such as liquor and medicine.
On the macro level, Huachuang Securities pointed out that inflation rose more than expected in August, and the upstream and midstream price hikes are still being transmitted. However, the impact of the rebound of the epidemic on terminal demand is apparent, and downstream prices have weakened faster.CPIThe performance of non-food items and core CPI was weak,PPI-CPI scissors gap hit a new high. In the future, (1) CPI: Temporary factors support food items or gradually fade away. Due to seasonal factors, short-term CPI may stabilize and rebound, but under the influence of weak terminal demand, the annual high may be less than 2% . (2) PPI: The short-term supply-side policy constraints are expected to be relaxed or difficult to be fulfilled. The traditional peak season replenishment demand superimposed on the “golden nine silver ten” is approaching, and the upstream price rise may remain resilient. PPI is facing the risk of “shooting up again” during the year; raw material prices are high , The marginal pressure on the decline of terminal demand will increase, downstream industries may be squeezed by both sides, and the contradiction in cost upwards that the previous policy focused on is still accumulating; focus on the disturbance of production and the support for price and the weakening of terminal demand by the production restriction policy. The situation, and the policy response.
In terms of operating strategy,Southwest SecuritiesIt is mentioned that the key recommended resources (colored and black), military industry, new energy vehicles, and post-shipping cycle sectors: 1) Military work is hard technology, and the high degree of prosperity is constantly being verified. The current military industry adjustment is instead a configuration window period. 2) New energyAutomobile industryThe development has entered a period of non-linear acceleration, the penetration rate has accelerated, and the growth of downstream sales has driven the rapid outbreak of demand in the upstream and midstream industrial chains. 3) The mismatch of supply and demand of upstream resources is expected to continue. Under the background of “dual carbon” + epidemic situation, the expansion of the supply side is still limited, economic recovery + energy transformation, downstream demand is strong, and the resource sector continues to usher in the long-term prosperity under the mismatch of supply and demand cycle. 4) GlobalShipbuildingThe industry has ushered in a new round of upward cycle, with both volume and price rising and the boom is high.
Guojin SecuritiesSaid that the industry has both offensive and defensive configuration. Offensive end: midstream capital goods, basic chemicals and other sectors.Defensive end: low-value buildings, highDividendsElectricity and other industries. 1) Offensive aspects: ① Midstream capital goods: equipment manufacturing, etc. Benefiting from the expansion of capital expenditures, the industry’s prosperity has increased; ②Highly cost-effective sectors: basic chemicals, etc.Industry as a wholePerformanceHigh growth is both deterministic and sustainable. 2) Defensive aspects: ① Low valuation: construction, etc. Valuation repair superimposed order growth expectations; ② Stable performance and dividends: power, etc. A defensive sector with low valuations and high dividends.
The Pacific OceanSecurities pointed out thatComprehensive industryJudging from the perspectives of prosperity, style driving force, and overdraft duration, it is recommended to over-match three directions: (1) The cycle of growth attributes: rare metals, military and wind power, etc., comparable to “steel” from 2005 to 2007, and 2009 ~ “Cement” in 2011.
(2) Industrial master machines, especially equipment vendors in the upstream cycle, will benefit from the “post-cycle era” of Capex expansion.
(3)Brokerage: In the second half of the year, liquidity is expected to be released for the second time. The establishment of the “Beijing Stock Exchange” will not only increase the business opportunities of securities firms and investment banks; at the same time, considering that new vitality will be injected into the market, it will also benefit the brokerage, two financing, asset management, and Self-operated, agency sales and subsidiariesfundbusiness. Among them, as the proportion of wealth management in the income of securities firms increases, the logic of increasing the market share of fund investment in the future will become the long-term logic of securities firms’ allocation, which will help to improve the level of securities firms’ ROE. In addition, considering the weak valuations or fundamentals of photovoltaics and electronics, we give recommendations for the second choice.
(Source: China Business News)
.