Tim, to sell the network you need to postpone the integration with Open Fiber
Tim has no more time to waste. The need to reduce debt forces the company led by Pietro Labriola to hope that new offers will be presented on 9 June that come close to the target set by Vivendi. But it will be a frustrated hope. The French were asking for 31 billion, they can go down to about 27, but don’t stray from that figure. Many argue that the network is not worth it more than 22-23 billion and the offers arrived even stopped at 20.
Nor do the paths that lead to the takeover bid (an idea that does not warm investors) or those of the capital increase seem feasible. So what’s left? Perhaps the only way is to unbundle integration of Tim’s network with Open Fiber. This is the main regulatory obstacle since the company is 60% owned by Cassa Depositi e Prestiti and 40% by Macquarie. The same entities that could present an improved offer for Tim’s network and who could then be stopped by the European Antitrust if they proceeded with the integration with Open Fiber because it would be a concentration in one subject, moreover with public participation, almost monopolistic.
Without the incorporation with Open Fiber, on the other hand, time could be gained and the decision postponed until a later time. There are no alternatives. Cdp does not seem to want to hear from this ear, but something will necessarily have to be devised. If only Kkr remained, it could indeed increase its offer, but certainly not of all the money that is missing to reach Vivendi’s requests. A week and we will know what will happen. Better cross your fingers.
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