Source: GF Futures Author: GF Futures
The text of the research report
[Spot]On November 14, the average price of SMM1# electrolytic nickel was reported at 203,200 yuan/ton, compared with -5,100 yuan/ton. The average price of Jinchuan nickel was reported at 204,050 yuan/ton, compared with -5,000 yuan/ton; the basis difference was 3,850 yuan/ton, and the chain was +300 yuan/ton. The average price of imported nickel was reported at 202,350 yuan/ton, compared with -5,250 yuan/ton; the basis difference was 2,150 yuan/ton, and the chain was +50 yuan/ton.
[Supply]The rainy season in the Philippines is coming, and the price of mines is firm. Short-term resources of ferronickel are tight, and prices are rising. MHP is still the preferred raw material for nickel sulfate production, and the transaction coefficient has moved up. The output of refined nickel increased steadily. According to SMM, the national electrolytic nickel output in October totaled 15,400 tons, an increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 6.2%; the output in November is expected to be 15,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 1.8%.
[Demand]The demand for alloys is improving and the tolerance for nickel prices is high; the price of nickel sulfate is strong, and the self-dissolving of nickel beans is easy to repair profits after the price of nickel falls. The overseas spot is at a deep discount, indicating that overseas demand is poor. According to SMM, China’s output of ternary precursors in October was 91,143 tons, an increase of 3% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 58%. According to Mysteel, the output of 300 series crude steel of 40 domestic stainless steel plants in October was 1.6512 million tons, an increase of 17.22% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 25.63%.
[Inventory]On November 11, the social inventory of SMM pure nickel in six places was 8,427 tons, an increase of 1,129 tons from the previous week. SHFE electrolytic nickel inventory was 4,634 tons, an increase of 1,575 tons week-on-week. LME inventory was 50,304 tons, down 1,104 tons from the previous week.
[Logic]In the early stage of macroeconomics, the bullishness will be realized in a concentrated manner, and more attention will be paid to the marginal changes in the follow-up. The structural contradiction between the surplus of secondary nickel and the low level of pure nickel inventory still exists, the demand for alloys is improving, the consumption of new energy vehicles drives the price of nickel sulfate to firm, and the economic line of nickel bean autolysis is the bottom line for nickel prices. The import window was closed, but the imported goods with locked prices in the early stage arrived in a concentrated manner, and the high price obviously inhibited the spot transaction. Tracking the trend of the outer market and the news of Indonesia’s taxation, we will treat it with a strong thinking and focus on the upward space of 200,000 yuan / ton.
【Operation suggestion】Temporarily wait and see.
【Short-term view】More cautious.
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