At 20:30 on Friday (September 3), Beijing time, the August non-agricultural employment report released by the US Department of Labor fell sharply below expectations. As of press time, spot gold jumped 15 US dollars to 1829.55 US dollars per ounce.
Specific data show that the non-agricultural employment population in the United States increased by 235,000 in August, the smallest increase since January 2021, and far less than the expected increase of 725 million. The previous value was revised up to an increase of 1.053 million;
The unemployment rate in the United States in August was in line with the expected 5.20%, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous value; the average annual hourly wage rate in August was 4.30%, which was 0.4 percentage points higher than the expected value and 0.3 percentage point higher than the previous value.
Analyst Chris Anstey commented on August non-agricultural: The overall employment growth data was only 235,000, which was significantly lower than expected.Such numbers may make the Fed’s debate about scaling back debt purchases more interesting
Analyst Matthew Boesler: The overall employment growth data is only 235,000, which is significantly lower than expected. Such numbers may make the Fed’s debate about reducing the size of its debt purchases more interesting.
The entertainment, catering and accommodation industry again recorded zero employment growth in August, showing that the impact of the new round of the epidemic on consumption and employment activities is higher than expected. The new wave of infections caused by the Delta virus has not yet passed, even if there are no further restrictions. Measures put pressure on people to reduce their outings spontaneously will also continue to impact the level of economic activity.
The less-than-expected data increases the probability that the Fed will make an official announcement at its meeting in December instead of November. Fed Chairman Powell affirmed last week that the economy is recovering, but did not give a signal when the Fed plans to cut asset purchases, only saying that it may be “this year.”
Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities in New York, said: “Regardless of the performance of the non-agricultural data in August, we don’t expect the Federal Reserve to announce reductions in debt purchases after the September policy meeting.”
Economists have been sharply lowering their expectations for the third quarter of the US GDP. The reasons include the resurgence of the epidemic driven by the new crown mutant strain Delta, and the continued shortage of raw materials, which inhibits the sales of durable goods such as automobiles, and makes it more difficult for companies to replenish inventory. US car sales fell 10.7% in August.
Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan Chase in New York, said: “At some point, production should rebound to replenish inventory and support sales, but it is unclear when it will happen. The recent spread of Delta mutant strains and wider The continued existence of supply chain bottlenecks creates some downside risks to the near-term outlook.”
Labor shortage is still prominent
The pandemic has overturned the normality of the labor market. Even if more than 8 million people are officially unemployed, the phenomenon of labor shortage is still very prominent. The lack of affordable childcare services, concerns about the risk of infection, the generous unemployment relief provided by the federal government, and the epidemic have led many people to retire early.
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported on Thursday (September 2) that half of American small business owners said there were job vacancies in August because finding qualified workers is still an ongoing challenge they face. The report also shows that 91% of owners said that they tried to fill jobs last month with few or no qualified applicants.
In a year when the U.S. economy is expected to grow at the fastest rate in 40 years, employers across the country continue to face labor shortages. However, with the rapid spread of the new crown mutant strain Delta, the applicant himself is also facing a difficult decision.
NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg said in a statement: “Small employers are struggling to fill vacant positions and find qualified workers, which has caused owners to raise their salaries to a record high. Owners are raising salaries to attract workers, and these costs are passing through the commodity. And service price increases are passed on to consumers, causing inflationary pressures.”
Sung Won Sohn, a professor of finance and economics at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles, said: “The Delta mutant strain is like a sandstorm that was suddenly encountered in an otherwise sunny economy. If it doesn’t happen, the employment rate will be higher in August. .”
As schools restart teaching below the line, the federal government unemployment benefits will expire next Monday (September 6), labor supply may increase, but the market is cautiously optimistic about this, the Delta mutant strain may delay some people Return to the labor market.
Employment is enough to support economic expansion
However, although the surge in new crown cases has reduced the demand for travel and entertainment, some unemployed people have to stay at home to take care of their children, and employers’ efforts to increase recruitment have been frustrated, but the US employment growth rate is sufficient to sustain economic expansion.
High-frequency economic indicators show that demand for air travel, hotel accommodation and face-to-face meals is weak, factory employment is shrinking, and private sector employment is lower than expected. However, the speed of recruitment by small businesses has accelerated, and consumers are still quite optimistic about the labor market.
In the past few years, including 2020, the initial value of employment in August was lower than expected and lower than the average employment growth in the three months ending in July.
Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic adviser at Brean Capital in New York, said: “The new crown epidemic may make this comparison less useful, but in the past 12 years, there have been 11 years including 2020. After the publication of the two employment reports, they were revised up.”
Mahir Rasheed, an economist at the Oxford Economics Institute, said: “We are not describing the current environment as a labor shortage, but as a temporary dislocation between labor supply and demand, which will improve in the coming months.”
Spot gold looks at $1865
On the hourly chart, the price of gold may start an upward wave iii from US$1,805, with the 61.8% target and 100% target at US$1828 and US$1843, respectively. Wave iii is a sub-wave of the upward wave (iii) that started from US$1785. The target level of 38.2% and 61.8% of wave (iii) are at US$1835 and US$1865, respectively. The (iii) wave is a sub-wave of the upward wave ((i)) that started from $1680.