The war in Ukraine will change the world, and recent research by The Economist identifies ten ways in which the conflict initiated by the Russians will reshape the world‘s geopolitical order. The battle for Ukraine is not just another regional war but in fact represents a rupture in Russia-West relations that will have profound repercussions for Europe and the world. Let’s see in detail.
How the world will change after the war in Ukraine
In first, lRussia’s war in Ukraine will lead to a new division of Europe, the research says. Russia’s brutal invasion aims to destroy Ukraine’s sovereignty and prevent the country from ever joining NATO or the EU. Russia intends to annex at least part of Ukraine, thus creating a buffer zone between Russia and the West that also includes Belarus and Kazakhstan.
Second and third pointthe research says, is that Russia’s violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty marks the end of the post-Cold War order and the war in Ukraine will deepen Russia’s strategic alliance with China. Fourth point, says the research, is that Russia’s actions will accelerate the bifurcation of the world into two hostile camps, China and the West already competing for several years to establish dominance in the industries and technologies of the future and to prepare the ground for a future. decoupling. Fifth point, the renewed focus on European security that will limit the US inclination towards Asia. The United States will find itself having to focus on containing a declining power (Russia) when it wanted to devote its energies to containing the threat of an emerging power (China). This is bad news for countries like Japan, Korea and Taiwan, which were counting on more protection from the United States, and which will be even more eager to form a counterbalance coalition against China in the Asia-Pacific region.
Sixth point, the war in Ukraine will accelerate a global arms race. The end of the Soviet threat led to a “peace dividend” and a general decline in global spending. An arms race has resumed in recent years, with China expanding its nuclear arsenal and Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, France and others modernizing theirs. This race did not reach the size of that between Russia and the United States during the Cold War, as US military spending is still more than 2.5 times that of China, but it is accelerating. Seventh point, Germany which could begin to play a more assertive role in European security policy. In a major political shift, Germany will supply arms to Ukraine, invest € 100 billion in the German military, and increase defense spending to more than 2% of GDP, above the long-ignored target by member states. of NATO. Eighth point, Europe will be forced to decide which side to stand in the new global order e ninth, the challenge to global democracy will become more pronounced. The war on Ukraine will deepen the division of the world into authoritarian and democratic camps. fields. The invasion of Ukraine marks another turning point in Russia’s descent into full-blown authoritarianism. Ultimately the war in Ukraine will encourage others and ignite existing conflicts.