According to news from the financial community network on July 3, unexpected non-agricultural data boosted market investment sentiment. U.S. stocks closed up across the board. S&P set a record closing high for the seventh consecutive day and for the 35th time in the year. The Nasdaq also set a new closing high; the concept of SaaS on the disk Stocks rose, online education and new energy vehicle stocks fell, Sohu (SOHU) rose more than 5%, Gaotu (GOTU) fell more than 8%, Ideal Motors (LI) fell nearly 6%, and Didi (DIDI) Travel fell more than 5 %, Dingdong Shopping (DDL) plummeted by more than 11%.
As of the close, the Nasdaq composite index rose 116.9 points, or 0.81%, to 1,4639.3 points; the Dow Jones index rose 154.00 points, or 0.44%, to 34787.53 points; the S&P 500 index rose 30.96 points, or 0.72%, to 4,350.90 points. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1%, the S&P rose 1.67%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.94%, both recording weekly gains for the second consecutive week.
Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower on Friday. Didi fell 5.30% and fell more than 10% during the session. Previously, the Cyber Security Review Office initiated a cyber security review of “Didi Travel”, and new user registrations will be suspended during the review period; Pupu Culture fell nearly 11%, and gained 790% in the first week of listing. Luckin rose by more than 10%, Sohu by nearly 6%, Qingke by more than 4%, Weibo and Manbang by more than 2%, Renren and Sogou by more than 1%. Among new energy auto stocks, Ideal Auto fell nearly 6%, Xiaopeng Auto rose nearly 0.2%, and Weilai Auto fell nearly 1%. Among the education stocks, the head of education fell by nearly 15%, Gaotu and Good Future fell by more than 8%, Puxin Education fell by more than 5%, and New Oriental fell by nearly 3%. Haichuan Securities fell by nearly 12%, Dingdong Maicai fell by more than 11%, Jiuzi Xinneng fell by more than 9%, China grid line fell by nearly 9%, Jinshan Cloud fell by nearly 8%, the ninth city, NetEase Youdao, Huya, Xunlei fell more than 4%, Tuniu fell nearly 4%, Yunmi Technology, WiMi Hologram fell by more than 3%, Daily Fresh Food fell by nearly 3%, Pinduoduo, Baidu, Tiger Securities, Qu Toutiao, and Cheetah Mobile fell by more than 2 %, Alibaba, JD, iQiyi, Bilibili, and Huanju Group fell more than 1%.
European stocks fluctuated and rose, with the Stoxx 600 index rising 0.18%, following the rise of US stocks. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.95%, the Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.27%, and the South Korean KOSPI Index fell 0.01%. US WIT futures prices fell 0.1% to close at US$75.16 per barrel, but rose 1.5% this week; international Brent oil prices rose 0.4% to close at US$76.71 per barrel, a cumulative increase of 1.1% this week. Gold futures prices rose 0.4% to close at $1,783.30 per ounce, recording a three-day rise and setting a new closing high since June 23. This week it also increased by 0.3%.
The US non-agricultural report in June was mixed, but considering the high expectations of the market, the actual performance was actually not good. Although the new non-agricultural employment population was higher than market expectations, the unemployment rate and wage growth, which are highly correlated with inflation, were slightly slower than expected. In June, the US created 850,000 new jobs, much higher than the 700,000 expected by the market earlier this week, and a significant increase from 583,000 in the previous month. However, considering that the number of ADP employment and initial jobless claims on Wednesday and Thursday exceeded expectations, it is not surprising that the non-agricultural sector in June was better than expected, and the market may have already digested this scenario.
However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 5.9% from 5.8% in May, while the market had expected it to fall to 5.7%. At the same time, the average hourly rate fell unexpectedly from 0.4% in May to 0.3%. The market had expected it to maintain an increase of 0.4%. After reopening the economy through the new crown vaccination, the economy ended with a strong growth momentum in the second quarter. However, because employment is not expected to return to pre-epidemic levels until sometime in 2022, even if inflation heats up due to supply constraints, rising wages are unlikely to worry Fed officials.
The decline in demand for the Fed’s reverse repurchase tool (RRP) after the end of the quarter is considered temporary, and some strategists expect a new round of surge in demand for this tool with an interest rate of 0.05%. Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar (Zoltan Pozsar) said in a report on Thursday that a large amount of funds will be transferred from the Treasury bill market to the Fed’s reverse repurchase tool in the next few weeks, and it may be possible by the end of August. Reached 1.3 trillion US dollars. On Thursday, the Fed’s demand for reverse repurchase tools was US$742.6 billion, which was lower than Wednesday’s record high of US$991.9 billion. On Friday, the Fed accepted $731.5 billion in fixed-rate reverse repurchases. Citigroup stated that the use of money market funds in the Fed’s reverse repurchase tool alone can reach nearly $3 trillion. Although we do not think that RRP will eventually reach this level, it clearly has enough room for increase. Other investors said that the flood of cash in the currency market is pushing yields on US Treasury bonds of all maturities to low levels.
The U.S. non-agricultural employment data released on Friday further led the market to believe that the Fed’s strength in reducing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) will exceed that of U.S. Treasuries. It is difficult to have a clear understanding of the employment situation in the United States from the latest labor force data. Although 850,000 new jobs were created, the household survey found that employment was declining, and the unemployment rate rose slightly as a result. It is not believed that Friday’s data will reach the level of so-called “substantial progress” in the labor market, and the conditions for reducing debt purchases are expected to be unsatisfactory. This is for U.S. debt. At the same time, housing market data over the past few months have repeatedly shown that the housing market no longer needs the Fed’s support. Many Fed officials mainly focus on MBS when discussing the issue of code reduction. Today’s employment report has even more convinced investors that the Fed will prioritize the reduction of MBS. Before the Federal Open Market Committee convenes in July, the Fed’s speech should continue to be followed to find evidence.
OPEC+ Committee recommends gradually increasing oil production for the rest of this year
The OPEC+ Ministerial Committee recommended a gradual increase in oil production before the end of the year, paving the way for the organization to reach an agreement. Even if oil prices are at a two-year high, this move still allows the organization to firmly control supply. A participant who declined to be named stated that the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Supervisory Committee, which includes Russia and Saudi Arabia, recommended that the organization increase production by 400,000 barrels per day from August to December.
The committee also recommended that the expiration of the organization’s production reduction agreement should be postponed from April 2022 to December. The current expiration time was reached during the peak of the first round of the new crown epidemic last year, and it may lead to a potentially large amount of supply returning to the market after it expires. “The price reaction tells everything,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Group, after the preliminary details of the OPEC+ agreement were announced. “Supply growth will be lower than market participants expected, and demand is expected to rise before the end of August. “
International Monetary Fund IMF: The US economy is expected to grow by 7% this year
According to the International Monetary Fund, the US economy is expected to grow by 7% this year, the highest since 1984. This new forecast is included in the IMF’s annual assessment of US economic policy, provided that the US Congress will pass the Biden administration’s infrastructure, social spending, and tax reform plans, and that there will be no major changes to the size and composition of the plan. .
TD Securities: Need very strong non-agricultural data to support the continued rise of the dollar
TD Securities analysts said that the latest forecast shows that compared with before the new crown crisis, the total number of jobs in the United States has decreased by 6.8 million, which is still quite large. It may be necessary to achieve further substantial progress in the Fed’s reduction of bond purchase standards before the dollar can further strengthen.
We expect that non-agricultural employment will increase by 800,000 in June, which is slightly higher than the consensus of the market, but we believe that the foreign exchange market will accept a substantial increase in employment because some upward expectations have been digested. If our basic expectations are realized, the US dollar may return to a consolidation mode against most G10 currencies.
Big short Michael Bury: Meme stock is about to crash
Big short investor Michael Bury said in an interview with “Barron” that the meme stocks favored by Reddit retail investors will collapse like the Internet and real estate market bubbles in the past few decades. He believes that these Meme stocks are speculative trading. May soon hurt ordinary investors. I don’t know when such Meme stocks will collapse, but we may not have to wait too long, because I believe retail investors have fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street is already eager to try.
Musk: Without government support, SpaceX’s competitors would die miserably
SpaceX founder Elon Musk recently had an argument on Twitter with Tory Bruno, CEO of United Launch Alliance (ULA), a joint-venture rocket manufacturer between Boeing and Lockheed Martin. The core of the dispute is Musk’s belief that ULA has the strong support of the US government, while Bruno firmly denies this position.
SpaceX’s goal is to make humans a multi-planetary species, and ULA’s goal is to maximize the dividends of Lockheed and Boeing.
Ideal delivered 7713 units in June to a new high, and new orders for the month exceeded 10,000 units, an annual increase of more than three times
On July 2nd, Ideal Automobile released the delivery data for June 2021. Ideal Motors delivered 7713 units in June, representing a year-on-year +320.6% and month-on-month +78.4%, setting a new record for monthly deliveries; 17575 units were delivered in the second quarter, +166.1 year-on-year %, exceeding the upper limit of the previous financial report guidance; benefiting from the launch of the 2021 new ONE, new orders in June also exceeded 10,000 units, a record high.
Ali announced organizational upgrade: the establishment of Tmall supermarket and import and export business group, AutoNavi, local life and Fliggy group life service sections
On the morning of July 2, Zhang Yong, Chairman and CEO of Alibaba Group, issued a letter to all employees, announcing a series of organizational upgrade decisions. Alibaba will form a life service segment based on the three major businesses of geographic location services, namely AutoNavi, Local Life and Fliggy; in addition, it announced the establishment of a new Tmall supermarket and import and export business group, which will be entered by Tmall Supermarket and Tmall. Composition of the export business group.
The Cyber Security Review Office initiates a cyber security review of Didi Chuxing
The Cyber Security Review Office issued an announcement on the launch of a cyber security review of Didi Chuxing. The announcement pointed out that in order to prevent national data security risks, maintain national security, and protect public interests, it is based on the National Security Law of the People’s Republic of China and the Cybersecurity Law of the People’s Republic of China. “The Cyber Security Review Office implements network security reviews on Didi Travel in accordance with the “Network Security Review Measures.”
In response, Didi responded that it will actively cooperate with cyber security reviews. During the review period, Didi will, under the supervision and guidance of relevant departments, comprehensively sort out and investigate network security risks, and continue to improve the network security system and technical capabilities.
China’s family service platform’s first swan arrives home to submit the prospectus
In the early morning of July 3, Swan Daojia, the country’s leading family service platform, formally submitted its initial public offering (IPO) prospectus. The prospectus shows that the stock exchange that Swan Daojia intends to list on is the New York Stock Exchange, with the stock code “JIA”, and the lead underwriters are JP Morgan Chase, UBS, and CICC, which will sprint the first share of China’s family service platform.
In terms of financial data, as of the end of December 2020, the GTV (Gross Transaction Value, or total transaction value) of Swan Daojia’s platform reached RMB 8.828 billion (US$ 1.353 billion), which was twice as high as the total of the 2nd to 5th in the same industry. More than doubled. In terms of main business income, Swan Home’s main business income in 2019 was 611 million yuan, an increase of 53.3% over 2018. It is worth mentioning that even under the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, Swan’s operating income in 2020 still achieved a significant year-on-year growth. In 2020, the main business revenue of 711 million yuan (109 million US dollars), an increase of 16.4% over 2019. Entering 2021, Swan Home’s main business continued to perform well. The revenue from the main business in the first quarter was 197 million yuan, an increase of 38.4% from the 142 million yuan in the first quarter of 2020.
Source: Financial World NetworkReturn to Sohu to see more
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