Winter over? NO
Winter over? The last word has not been said, on the contrary. From the projections of the Calculation Centers there would seem to be some interesting signals: the hypothesis that has emerged is that of a sudden stratwarming above the North Pole, with the subsequent shattering of the Polar Vortex. Which is why by the end of February Italy risks an atmospheric upheaval, within a few days.
Stratwarming: this term, in meteorology, refers to an anomalous and intense heating of the earth’s stratosphere, right above the Arctic Circle, in the order of even 50/60°C in just a few days.
As www.ilmeteo.it explains, in the next few weeks the area between Siberia and Alaska will be kept under observation, where the thermal anomaly could be more significant: even, as the map indicates, deviations from the average are expected up to +53°C.
This heating, once activated, gradually tends to expand in the direction of the upper troposphere, with repercussions on the Polar Vortex in the space of about 2/4 weeks: the immediately lower tropospheric sector, in fact, is forced to deform (in technical terms speaks of “polar vortex dislocation”) or to break, subdividing into 2/3 distinct depressive lows (“polar vortex split”), which then travel, at least in part, in the direction of medium latitudes, causing cold waves as far as heart of Europe and also on Italy.
From the study of some atmospheric indices it emerged that the most popular hypothesis is that of a subdivision into several portions of the Polar Vortex (as mentioned, in technical jargon Split of the Polar Vortex), with the possibility of powerful meridian exchanges (i.e. cold currents that descend from North to South). Not only that. The latest forecast data available to us for the medium and long term also go in the same direction. The projections of the European Center, in fact, also begin to sense interesting movements on a hemispheric scale, with a possible irruption towards central Europe (and subsequently towards Italy), of a powerful mass of cold air of Arctic origin, towards the end month. In this context we would be dealing with temperatures that are widely below average and probably also with a return of rainfall; to be evaluated later where the lowest depressions will form to identify the areas most involved and if there will be an opportunity for snowfall up to low altitude.
In summary, don’t expect a definitive surrender of Winter! Surprises on the weather front are around the corner. It should be remembered, for the sake of clarity, that since we are dealing with long-term forecasts, what we are proposing is only a general view of the expected weather and not a detailed forecast for a single location or useful planning your own private life.
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