Original title: Antigen detection market continues under the spread of multiple mutant strains, and the export of reagents is concentrated to advantageous enterprises
Due to the severe overseas epidemic and the confirmation of new virus strains, the global demand for new coronavirus detection kits has surged. After nearly two years of fierce market competition, the export of domestic new crown detection reagents has shown a trend of concentrating on advantageous enterprises.
According to CCTV news reports, the United States is currently facing a shortage of new crown testing kits. The kits in American pharmacies are basically sold out. Most of the new crown testing points in the United States are overcrowded, and it even takes hours to complete the test. At the same time, fake new coronavirus test kits have also appeared on the market in the United States, which has further troubled the public.
According to reports, in the United States, the price of a two-dose rapid screening kit is usually between 14 and 24 US dollars. Now due to shortage of supply, the price has doubled several times in some markets, reaching 75 US dollars (about 478.2 yuan). There is even a price tag of $80 (about 510.1 yuan).
Reflecting that the A-share sector has once again driven the volatility of the relevant company sector.
Previously, Rejing Bio announced that it is expected to achieve a net profit of 2 billion to 2.35 billion yuan attributable to owners of the parent company in 2021, which will increase by 1.888 billion yuan to 2.238 billion yuan compared with the same period of the previous year (statutory disclosure data). A year-on-year increase of 1684.65% to 1996.97%. Jiu’an Medical has been sought after for its involvement in related nucleic acid testing business, but it has also caused volatility again.
In fact, after nearly two years of fierce market competition, the export of domestic new crown detection reagents has shown a trend of concentrating on advantageous enterprises.
Antigen testing market continues
On January 9, foreign media reported that Cyprus was suspected to have discovered the recombinant new crown virus strains of Delta and Omicron. Named “Deltacron”. At present, 25 people in Cyprus have been found to be infected with the new strain of “Delta Chron”. It remains to be seen whether the strain is more pathogenic and contagious.
At present, the new crown virus strain that poses the greatest threat to the world is still “Omicron”, which is spreading rapidly around the world. The first is the United States. The 7-day average daily new cases in the United States exceeded 660,000, a month-on-month increase of 72%, and Omicron accounted for more than 95%; the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Ireland and other European countries have greatly refreshed the single-day new cases. Australia’s new confirmed cases exceeded 110,000 in a single day, setting a new historical record; India’s epidemic situation is even more dangerous. In random tests, at least 400 people in the Indian parliament tested positive for the new crown.
Going overseas has become a profitable way for many in vitro diagnostic (IVD) companies. With the control of the domestic epidemic, the profit space of the domestic market has shrunk, and the international market has become a competitive target for companies, and they have begun to expand overseas business.
According to the import and export data of key commodities from the General Administration of Customs of China, from January to May 2021, the export value of my country’s main diagnostic reagents reached 42.846 billion yuan. From the import and export of products, it can also be seen that the demand structure for new crown reagents in overseas markets has also changed. From the previous nucleic acid reagents to antibody reagents to antigen reagents, in March 2021, it has become a family-based self-made reagent. Antigen detection reagents are mainly used.
In 2021, the performance of most in vitro testing companies will remain strong. According to the third-quarter financial report, the revenue of Kehua Bio, Antu Bio, Runda Medical, and Daan Gene all exceeded 1 billion yuan. In terms of net profit, many companies have a net profit of more than 1 billion, of which Mindray Medical has reached 2.318 billion. However, compared with the fact that IVD companies have obtained several times the operating income and net profit of the same period of the previous year in 2020, the growth rate of performance in 2021 will generally slow down significantly.
Despite the catalysis of the new crown epidemic, in the past 20 years, my country’s in vitro testing industry has been driven by multiple favorable policies, markets, technologies, etc., the degree of industrialization has increased rapidly, and the trend of industry concentration has emerged. Especially with the intensification of market segment competition and the influence of policies and other factors, the development of the domestic in vitro diagnostic industry has entered the “second half”.
Detecting the coexistence of business opportunities and challenges
The advent of the rapid antigen detection technology means that the detection of the new coronavirus can enter a wider market, and people can even carry out the detection and management of the new coronavirus infection at home. Due to its fast, accurate and easy-to-operate advantages, customs, hotels, restaurants Other industries may benefit from it.
However, the question of the accuracy of antigen detection has always been one of the challenges of this business. The Robert Koch Institute in Germany recommends antigen testing as a complement to existing polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing, i.e. nucleic acid testing. The scientific community uses PCR test results as the main criterion for diagnosing whether the human body is infected with the new coronavirus, but many countries have insufficient nucleic acid tests, which is one of the reasons for the development of antigen testing.
Nucleic acid detection has the characteristics of early diagnosis, high sensitivity and specificity, and is the “gold standard” for the diagnosis of new coronary pneumonia. At present, the most widely used real-time fluorescence quantitative RT-PCR technology. However, nucleic acid detection has higher requirements on detection equipment, platforms and operators, and the detection takes a long time, usually 4-6 hours.
The novel coronavirus antigen detection adopts the double-antibody sandwich method, which uses two antigen-specific antibodies to recognize and bind to different epitopes of a target antigen, which can greatly reduce the probability of cross-reaction and effectively improve its specificity. This method is fast and accurate in diagnosis, and has low requirements for equipment and personnel, but antigen detection requires higher sensitivity. The usual sampling method may result in missed results due to the small number of viruses obtained, that is, it may present a “false negative”.
In recent years, the in vitro diagnostic industry has developed rapidly and has become the most active industry in the medical market. According to the “China Medical Device Blue Book (2021)”, my country’s in vitro diagnostic market has grown from 51 billion yuan in 2017 to 89 billion yuan in 2020, and is expected to reach a market size of 129 billion yuan in 2022.
Some laws, regulations and industrial policies that have been promulgated in my country are also helping the development of the in vitro diagnostic industry, and at the same time, they have also put forward further requirements for the development of the medical device industry to regulate the healthy and long-term development of the market.
Liang Yaoming, chairman of KingMed Medical, said in an interview with a 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the centralization of the testing industry is conducive to making the cake bigger and promoting the rational allocation of resources, and industry leaders must have ecological awareness. Centralized procurement will help accelerate industrial concentration, which is better for the industry in the long run. This is also consistent with the development law of the overseas testing industry. Judging from foreign development experience, the testing industry is often concentrated in two or three leading companies. Other SMEs rely on innovation and development to make breakthroughs in subdivisions.
In vitro diagnosis (IVD) is mainly divided into four categories: biochemistry, immunity, molecular diagnosis, and POCT. At present, the development of domestic IVD mainly depends on foreign exports. In addition to the research and development of new crown nucleic acid detection reagents, many companies are committed to the development of new crown nucleic acid detection reagents. How to synchronize in other fields of IVD It is a common challenge faced by every enterprise to carry out R&D and innovation to ensure that the growth advantage can still be maintained after the epidemic is normalized and stabilized.
Domestic new crown screening and diagnosis is dominated by nucleic acid detection, assisted by antibody detection, and antigen detection is basically not carried out on a large scale. Internationally, nucleic acid testing and antigen testing are used simultaneously, while antibody testing is mainly used for infection traceability investigations.
Among the nucleic acid detection reagents, 12 companies including BGI, Jinyu, Zhijiang Bio, Fosun Pharma, Mingde Bio, Livzon Group, Shuo Shi Bio, Mike Bio, Antu Bio, and Rejing Bio are included. listed company.
Wei Zhihua, a senior researcher at Shanghai Ruijun Assets, previously said that for companies with a high proportion of overseas revenue structure, “Omicron” will have a greater impact on the performance of such companies, because the companies that go overseas are more likely to Facing market competition.
Wei Zhihua said that according to the original market expectations, if there is no “Omicron” variant, the demand for testing in overseas markets may not be very high; therefore, once the demand drops, the price of reagents will also decline due to competition. The overseas market performance of such companies has an impact. Today, due to the influence of the “Omicron” mutant strain, the testing demand in overseas markets has risen, and the demand and sales of these domestic antigen testing reagents will increase.
(Author: Tang Weike Editor: Bao Fangming)
.