Births in the US fell last year, ending the rebound in the pandemic

57

NEW YORK (AP) — Births in the United States fell last year, resuming a long national decline.

Just under 3.6 million babies were born in 2023, according to preliminary statistics released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. They are 76,000 fewer than the previous year and the lowest figure recorded since 1979.

Births had been declining for more than a decade until the COVID-19 pandemic hit, and then they fell 4% between 2019 and 2020. After that, they increased for two years in a row, something that experts attributed in part to pregnancies that couples had postponed in the early days of the pandemic.

However, “the 2023 numbers indicate that the rebound is over and we are back to the trends we were in before,” said Nicholas Mark, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin who studies how social policy and other factors influence the health and fertility.

Birth rates have long been declining among teenagers and young women, and rising among women in their 30s and 40s, a reflection of women focusing on their education and careers before trying to start a family, according to studies. experts. But last year, birth rates fell for all women under 40 and remained stable for women 40 and older.

Mark described that as surprising, saying “there is some evidence that this is not just a postponement.”

Rates fell across nearly all racial and ethnic groups.

The figures released on Thursday were based on more than 99.9% of birth certificates submitted in 2023, although they were provisional and the final figure could change when they are completed. For example, the provisional birth number for 2022 appeared to show a decline, but ended up feeling higher than 2021 when the count was completed.

There could be an adjustment to the 2023 data, but not enough to eliminate the “considerable” decline shown in the provisional numbers, said Brady Hamilton, lead author of the CDC report.

Experts have wondered how births could be affected by the U.S. Supreme Court’s June 2022 decision that allowed states to ban or restrict abortion. Experts estimate that almost half of pregnancies are unplanned, so limits on abortion could affect the number of births.

The new report indicates that the decision did not cause a national increase in births, although the researchers did not analyze trends in individual states or break down the data by demographic groups.

The new data did raise the possibility of an impact on adolescent girls. The teen birth rate has been in decline for decades in the United States, although the decline has been less drastic in recent years and appears to have stopped for teens ages 15 to 17.

“That could be Dobbs,” said Dr. John Santelli, a professor of population and family health and pediatrics at Columbia University. Or it could be due to changes in sex education or access to contraception, he added.

Whatever the case, the stabilization of the birth rate among high school students is concerning and indicates that “whatever we are doing for middle and high school kids is failing,” Santelli said.

More findings from the report:

— Between 2022 and 2023, the provisional number of births fell 5% for Alaska Native and American Indian women, 4% among Black women, 3% for white women and 2% for Asian American women. Births rose 1% for Hispanic women.

— The percentage of babies born prematurely remained virtually unchanged

— The rate of births by cesarean section rose again, to 32.4% of births. Some experts are concerned that more C-sections are being performed than medically necessary.

—The United States remained among the few developed countries with a fertility rate that guarantees that each generation will have enough children to replace it, about 2.1 children per woman. But it is declining, and in 2023 it fell to about 1.6, the lowest figure documented in the country.

Polls suggest that many American couples would prefer to have two or more children, but see housing, job security and the cost of child care as significant barriers to having more children.

“There is something getting in the way of them being able to achieve those goals,” Mark said.

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Scientific and Educational Media Group. AP is solely responsible for all its content.