The Argentine economy will fall by 2.8% and annual inflation of 150% for Argentina by the end of 2024, as estimated by the IMF. The forecast for the country is part of the report on “World economy perspectives” which was broadcast this Tuesday from Washington.
In its report last October, the organization estimated that the Argentine GDP would grow 2.8% this year, but now, in the update of that report, it places it at the same percentage, but in negative terms. However, by 2025 the country’s macroeconomic situation would improve: the Fund foresees an advance of 5% of the Gross Product.
“The revision of the forecast for 2024 is due to Argentina’s negative growth in the context of a significant adjustment of economic policy to restore macroeconomic stability,” the IMF assessed.
Regarding inflation, he did not give numbers for this year, but clarified: “The realignment of relative prices and the elimination of old price controls, the latest depreciation of the currency and its transfer to prices are expected to increase inflation in the short term.
At a global level, the Fund’s projections indicate that there will be growth of 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025, 0.2 points above October calculations. The improvement is linked to stronger-than-expected resilience in the United States and several emerging market economies, as well as fiscal stimulus in China.
However, the forecasts for these two years are lower than the historical average of 3.8% (for the period 2000–2019).
Specifically for Latin America and the Caribbean, the report predicted a GDP drop of 1.9% this year; For Brazil, Argentina’s main trading partner, there will be economic growth of 1.7%.
Referring to the global context, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist of the IMF, maintained that “the global economy is approaching a soft landing, but risks remain.”
«The clouds are beginning to dissipate. The global economy begins the final descent toward a soft landing, with inflation steadily declining and growth maintaining. But the pace of expansion remains slow and turbulence is possible, he emphasized.
The Monetary Fund estimated that the general level of inflation worldwide will decrease to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025.
In this sense, the report noted: “in many cases, as inflation declines and economies are better able to absorb the effects of budgetary adjustment, renewed attention is needed to fiscal consolidation in order to restore the capacity budget and be able to address future shocks, raise revenue for new spending priorities and stop the increase in public debt. With information from Noticias Argentinas and Ámbito.com