The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) will release this Friday the technical report with the percentage of April inflationafter reversing the postponement of the report, which had been postponed until next Monday, the day after the elections this Sunday in different provinces. According to the forecasts of the main private consultancies, the data would oscillate between 7% and 8%, with a sharp rebound in food prices and tourismareas influenced by the exchange rate rise.
If the indicator coincided with the highest estimate of 8%, according to the forecast of the Institute of Workers Statistics (IET), it would be the highest variation in the last twenty years, and would reach an accumulated above 30% in the first quarterhalf of what was budgeted for the whole year.
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According to this forecast, the interannual variation would exceed 112%and it would be the highest figure since September 1991.
According to Survey of Market Expectations released by the Central Bank, the consultants estimate inflation for April of 7.5% and inflation for the whole year of 126.4%, 0.7 points and 16.4 points above the March survey respectively.
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REM participants noted that the price of food registered an increase of 8.1% and that in the last week of April the rise in prices was 1.2%, slowing down 0.6% compared to the immediately preceding price.
In the monthly evaluation, the rise of 8.1% is supported by increases of 12.7% in vegetables, 12.4% in meat, dairy products (7.9%) and baked goods (7.4%). Oils increased 2.1% and fruits 2.3%.
According to the consultants, the upward price remarks occurred during the third week of April when the blue dollar touched $500.
The survey of retail prices of the C&T consultancy for Greater Buenos Aires, presented a monthly increase of 7.6% in Aprilthe highest since July 2022 and exceeded the record for March, which is usually a month of high inflation due to seasonal factors.
The Focus Market consultancy anticipated that inflation will slow down in April but still with a very high floor, above 5.5%.
The study of Orlando Ferreres estimated that the rise in retail prices would have reached 6.3% in April, with a new strong impact on food and with considerable increases in the clothing and education items.
CA
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