Inflation in March –a significant 7.7%– would represent something more than the definitive failure of the national government’s economic model. It could be the sign of a spiral that is difficult to contain, as it further aggravates the picture of macroeconomic instability and feeds the ghosts of a painful past.
For the fourth consecutive month, the consumer price index surpassed the previous month’s mark. Sergio Massa showed last November’s inflation as an indicator that he had been right with his first measurements: if in July and August it had been above 7%, and in September and October above 6%, in November it fell to 4.9% It was then that it was announced, as if the short-term data were truly a symbol of a change in trend, that in three or four more months we would already have monthly inflation below 4%.
The opposite happened. In December it climbed to 5.1%; in January it was again 6%; in February it rose to 6.6%, and in March it exceeded the figure for July (7.4%), when the Government experienced a strong internal destabilization, after the resignation of Martín Guzmán and the short management of Silvina Batakis.
A few weeks ago, former minister Jorge Ferraresi acknowledged that Massa “took office one day before we left by helicopter.” A clear reference to the radical president Fernando de la Rúa, who did not finish his term. In other words, for a very important leader of the ruling coalition, Alberto Fernández could have resigned if Massa had not taken charge of the Economy with the clear intention of –pun intended– stabilizing instability.
Not only did it take several weeks to achieve it, but its achievements were too short-lived. They volatilized even faster. And today we are worse than eight months ago.
The International Monetary Fund cannot require the Government to comply with what was agreed last year, so those clauses will be relaxed once more.
Financial markets are expressing both mistrust of the current course and anxiety not to make waves, implying that even the parallel dollar, despite the huge gap that distances it from official, is actually lagging behind inflation.
The most important economic consultants in the country recorded that inflation in the first half of April was almost identical to that of all of March.
And the main opposition force, which two months ago launched statements to warn about the “economic bomb”, today prefers to discuss its own internal affairs and not talk about the economy, while Javier Milei reinforces his speech in favor of dollarization and promises to close the Bank Central, which generates new reasons for general uncertainty.
These actors, each in their own way, convey the same idea: the government’s weakness is extreme and the risk of an economic disaster is amplified week by week by measures that will not bring a solution, since they were designed with an erroneous diagnosis.
Weak government, powerful inflation, electoral campaign without clear leadership. There seems to be no reason for optimism.