Double tie theUkraine at the Natoor at least open a large military umbrella over Kiev to guarantee its security, in order to convince Volodymyr Zelensky to start peace talks with Russia by the end of the year: this could be the plan some of the most important members of the Atlantic Alliance are working on. In particular, Germania, France e Great Britain they believe that the strengthening of relations between NATO and Ukraine is a condition potentially capable of encouraging the Ukrainian government to sit down at the negotiating table.
Doubts and perplexities
As reported by the Wall Street Journalsome of Kiev’s western partners feed growing perplexity about its ability to recapture all of its territory that fell into Russian hands. Not only that: the German chancellor Olaf Scholz and the French president Emmanuel Macron they would have invited the Ukrainian leader to resume dialogue with Moscow during the meeting he had with Zelensky in Paris in February.
For his part, the British Prime Minister Rishi Sunaklast week, unveiled a draft for a deal that would give Ukraine much wider access to advanced military equipment, weapons and ammunition to defend yourself once the war is over. Sunak himself said that the West should send Kiev weapons that would give it a decisive advantage on the battlefield, including warplanes.
Behind the scenes, however, deepening doubts are emerging among politicians in the UK, France and Germany about whether Ukraine can succeed in expelling Russians from eastern Ukraine. “We keep repeating that Russia must not win, but what does that mean? If the war continues long enough at this intensity, Ukraine’s losses will become unbearable. And no one believes that they will be able to recover the Crimea‘said a senior French official.
Ukraine and the peace talks
These doubts contrast sharply with i public comments issued by President Joe Biden and other Western leaders, who have asked for further unity to counter Moscow’s offensive. No one also mentioned the prospect that Kiev could start talks with the Kremlin in the near future.
Meanwhile, the leaders of the G7 and the United States, after a virtual meeting also attended by Zelensky on the day which marks the sad anniversary of the first year of the war, were clear: any country that intends to arm Russia against Ukraine or help Vladimir Putin to circumvent Western sanctions will suffer very serious consequences. “We call on third countries and all international actors trying to circumvent the sanctions by providing material support to Russia to stop immediately or they will face harsh sanctions“, was the warning from Biden and his allies from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Great Britain, who promise to step up support “diplomatic, economic and military to Ukraine and raise costs for Russia and all those who support its war effort“.
As mentioned, Macron and Scholz allegedly told Zelensky that Ukraine should start considering i peace talks with Moscow. During dinner at the Élysée Palace, the French president would have sent a more sober message, telling his guest that even two mortal enemies like France and Germany made peace after the Second World War. Macron also allegedly told the Ukrainian president that up to now he has been a great war leader, but that sooner or later he would have to move into politics and make difficult decisions.
NATO’s offer
A British official would instead have stated that another goal of NATO would be to change the Kremlin’s plans. According to this reading, if the West is ready to increase its military assistance and commitments with Ukraine over time, this closeness could persuade Moscow that it cannot achieve its military objectives.
A possible NATO offer would coincide with the supply to Kiev of military means to deter any future Russian attack. It would include no commitment to station NATO forces on Ukrainian territory, nor would it grant Zelensky the so-called Article 5 protection, which requires all members to come to the rescue of another if attacked and request assistance.
While exact terms have not been set, many of the officials cited by the WSJ they said that Ukraine could have access to a wide range of NATO-standard weapon systems and integrate its armed forces into the Western defense industry supply chain. Germany has already indicated its willingness to provide specific aid on a permanent basis, including air defences, heavy artillery, tanks and ammunition. Britain has talked about the delivery of warplanes. Beyond that, officials say, individual members would continue to provide bilateral military assistance to Kiev. Will it be enough to reassure the Ukrainian government?