What will be the next dominant variants of Covid? The virus changes continuously but only a few versions manage to establish themselves as Delta and now Omicron did. But despite the great hype with which each new variant is welcomed, they must not scare: it is in the nature of viruses to mutate, and in most cases if they gain in diffusion terms with recombination, they tend to lose other characteristics and be less lethal.
Coronavirus, how variants are formed
by Cinzia Lucchelli
To understand how Sars-Cov-2 is really evolving, the researchers of the Los Alamos National Laboratory – a research laboratory of the United States Department of Energy – have conducted a simulation projecting into the future what are the data collected so far worldwide on the trend of the pandemic and discovered that most of the Covid variants will run out, until they disappear, while the ones we already know best will have a long life.
In the study, just published by Nature Communications, the authors say they “found evidence of strong selection that will favor spike protein mutation and spread of D614G and B.1.1.7 variants. Weaker selection will tend to grow B.1.351 as well while no advantage seems to to be there for R.1, a variant not destined to spread widely “.
Covid Watch
Omicron variant, the battle is not lost. But you need the third dose
by Aureliano Stingi
But let’s go into detail. Since the early months of the pandemic, scientists have observed the emergence of mutations by analyzing viruses collected with molecular swabs. The most evident alterations are those of the nucleotides, the “letters” that make up the alphabet of genes. It was enough for one of the 29903 bricks that make it up in the Sars-Cov-2 genome to change for the D614G mutation to be born in Europe. This version of Covid spread rapidly and was found in all virus strains of the pandemic, although we still do not know if it was that recombination that facilitated its spread.
B.1.1.7. it is instead the lineage of the English variant, also known as Alpha, isolated for the first time in September 2020 in Kent and in record time become predominant also in Italy. B.1.351 is the South African variant, which has a very high resistance, on average between 11 and 33 times more, based on the antibodies present in the plasma of subjects previously immunized by its traditional variants. R.1, which we perhaps know best as the Mu variant, was discovered in Japan and has 5 mutations, including two on the Spike protein, but it also has many unique characteristics that have led it to become a “special guard”. But according to the authors, in this case the mutations it presents will also be its “ruin” so much as to lead it to disappear.
Covid vaccines, what is the third dose for?
by Aureliano Stingi
The mathematical models devised by Christiaan van Dorp, Emma Goldberg, Nick Hengartner, Ruian Ke and Ethan Romero-Severson “take into account the movements of variants within and between countries – say the authors – and could also be used in the future to understand which emerging variants will become dominant. When variants emerge, lack of data makes it difficult to determine whether they pose a real risk, but models can give a global perspective on spread as the virus adapts to human hosts, through the continuous emergence of variants more transmissible “. This is because “observing that a variant is increasing in frequency is relatively simple, but a sophisticated methodology is needed to determine if it will indeed be a threat.”
Masks, because we cannot yet abandon them in the fight against the virus
by Viola Rita
At the beginning of the pandemic it was assumed that “the adaptive evolution of this virus would be limited, since its spread is based only on the spike protein. Then, the birth and rise of more complex variants such as B.1.1.7 and Delta have shifted this understanding: as SARS-Cov-2 continues to adapt to transmission between humans, we have begun to expect further mutations. Similarly, the gradual roll-out of vaccination programs globally has begun to change the immune system, leading to ’emergence of “escape strains” that are partially or completely resistant to existing vaccines. An effect that can only be slowed down by greater and fairer vaccination “.
Increasingly rapid spread
Since September 2021 “Delta has replaced Alpha and has become the dominant variant in many countries. Its ability to cause more serious disease in the unvaccinated is – and will remain – a major concern.” Then, with the reopening of the borders, “the time between the emergence of a new variant in a country and its global spread has become shorter and shorter. With such a rapid spread, the fight against Covid requires new global tools aimed at assessment of the risk associated with the new strains, distinguishing between which new variants truly represent a greater threat and which, on the contrary, precisely because of the mutations they present, are not advantageous for the virus “, avoiding senseless fears, as happened with the arrival of Omicron in Italy.
New variants? They are not unexpected
As the doctor explains Deborah Cromer of the Kirby Institute, “the emergence of new variants, while disturbing, is far from unexpected. Viruses are constantly mutating and taking on new forms, and the level of immunity that exists against a new variant is critical to determining the impact that a Scientists now need to rapidly use established laboratory methods to determine how much immunity the blood of people vaccinated against Omicron has and whether we will then be able to use the established relationship between immunity and vaccine efficacy to predict how vaccines will work. existing against Omicron, and therefore how much impact this new variant could have on the forays we have made in the fight against Covid. Closing the borders could buy us some time to collect the data to answer these questions, however, as we have seen previously with both the original strain and Delta, a virus will eventually get over these barriers and will depend on the effectiveness of the immunity we have generated to date “.
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