They existed before Corona and they will exist after Corona: pandemics. That seems as certain as Amen in church. But which pathogens threaten to cause us trouble worldwide in the future? Nobody can predict that exactly. However, the World Health Organization (WHO) had already identified some pathogens in an action plan to prevent pandemics in 2016 – such as Sars-CoV-2, which was added to the list as a new pathogen at the start of the pandemic in 2020.
Expert network ranks the most dangerous pathogens with pandemic potential
However, the pathogens named by the WHO were never classified according to their potential risk for the next pandemic. Vaccelerate, a European Union-funded collaborative network of around 500 clinical trial sites designed to respond to pandemics and improve vaccine development, has now made up for this.
The study was recently published in the specialist magazine “Science Direct”. Detailed results will also be presented at the congress of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) in Barcelona from April 27th to 30th.
The study surveyed infectious disease experts worldwide between February and June 2023. You should evaluate the pathogens that are in the WHO action plan online for their potential pandemic risk – and also name pathogens that are not included in it and have the potential to trigger a new pandemic.
Influenza viruses potentially most dangerous for a new pandemic
According to the study, a total of 178 responses were received from 57 countries – but most of them from Germany, Spain and Italy.
This showed that 79 percent of those surveyed
considered the most likely pathogens for a new pandemic. „ Every winter we have an influenza season. You could say that there are small pandemics every winter,” explains lead researcher Jon Salmanton-García from the Medical Faculty at the University Hospital of Cologne in a press release.
“They are more or less controlled because the different strains are not virulent enough,” the doctor continued. “But the strains involved change every season, which is why we can get flu several times in our lives and the vaccinations change from year to year.” If a new strain becomes more virulent, this control could be lost, the doctor points out.
Places two to five: from disease X to Corona to Ebola
But influenza viruses are by no means the only viruses that can trigger a new pandemic. Here are other candidates:
2nd place: Disease X (49 percent). Around half of the researchers involved suspect that an emerging, previously unknown viral disease such as 2019 Sars-CoV-2 could trigger a new pandemic.
3rd place: Sars-Cov-2 (43 percent ). In fact, 43 percent believe that the new corona virus, which first appeared in 2019, still poses a threat and could trigger another pandemic.
Platz 4 : Sars-Cov ( 22 percent ). This corona virus caused global alarm when it first spread from China to over 25 countries in 2002/3.
Platz 5: Ebola virus (19 percent). Since the Ebola virus was discovered in 1976, nearly 30 outbreaks have been documented – most commonly in Congo. It is considered one of the most dangerous pathogens in the world and can cause hemorrhagic fever, which can lead to internal and external bleeding. According to the Federal Center for Health Education, depending on the type, 30 to 90 percent of cases are fatal.
These five pathogens have already shown pandemic capabilities
According to Vaccelerate, these five pathogens are the most worrisome and have the greatest potential to create a new pandemic, the study continues. “These pathogens are easily transmissible, particularly through airborne respiratory droplets, and have already demonstrated epidemic or pandemic capabilities,” it continued.
Although this all sounds very worrying, Salmanton-García still has reassuring words about respiratory pathogens: “In the Covid-19 pandemic, we have learned many things about how to deal with a respiratory virus pandemic,” he emphasizes. These included
social distance hand hygiene face masks and a renewed focus on vaccinations and trust in healthcare facilities.
“At the same time, the institutions have also learned a lot. Prevention and monitoring are now much better financed,” the scientist further emphasizes.
Bird flu is already on the rise – first transmission from cow to human
However, dark clouds are already gathering in the sky regarding influenza. Last week, the WHO expressed concerns about the spread of the H5N1 bird flu. In Texas, a man who worked on a cattle farm tested positive for the virus in April. Exactly how the transmission occurred is still being investigated, but this is the first known case of transmission from a cow to a human.
“Human infections with A(H5N1) remain rare and are related to contact with infected animals and the environment,” says the WHO. According to the WHO, almost 900 cases of A(H5N1) infections have been reported in humans since 2003. Half of them died. However, it cannot be ruled out that many more people were infected but showed no symptoms and therefore went undetected.
The highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A(H5N1) first emerged in 1996, but since 2020, infections among birds have been increasing rapidly, affecting more and more mammals, including minks, seals, sea lions and foxes. The largest wave of bird flu ever documented is currently raging across almost the entire world and also affecting Europe. The WHO is currently working with partners on a new risk assessment related to (A)H5N1.