After two years, it’s the first New Year’s Eve that we can live freely, in the balls, in the squares, among the people. Yet, inescapably, the increasingly worrying news about Covid from China and the flu from the congested emergency rooms of our cities is arriving. And therefore, at the same time, the question arises: will it really be the first New Year’s Eve to enjoy from 2019 to today? To answer the question – I’ll already give you the spoiler, the answer is “yes, but…” – as always, let’s start from Liguria, which is the region we have chosen as a privileged observatory, because the territory led by Giovanni Toti, even with its with only one million and 600 thousand inhabitants, it is the most interesting in Italy in terms of socio-registry composition, with on the one hand the largest number of elderly people and on the other the best quality of life, therefore with a higher life expectancy. And, at the same time, also a more important need for health care, as recently recognized also by the distribution of national funds to the individual Regions. For the record, at the other end of the pendulum is Campania, which is Italy’s youngest region. And so let’s start with the questions.
At this moment – and I speak for today, not for tomorrow or after – is the Australian flu or Covid more dangerous in Italy?
The answer is the first and there are basically three tips to follow: first, don’t go to the emergency room at the first symptoms because you risk getting really ill instead of recovering; the second is not to take antibiotics, which risk being counterproductive. And finally, if you have children with fever or symptoms, even slight ones, do not take them to tables or parties where there are grandparents or fragile categories, since they can be involuntary spreaders.
In addition, but this always applies, get vaccinated, even against the flu.
Witnessing all this is Filippo Ansaldi, general manager of Alisa, which is the regional health agency of Liguria, a sort of SuperAsl that compulses data, but above all he is a statistician of medicine, a sort of mythological animal, half doctor and half mathematician , who explains: “The epidemiological picture is characterized by a plateau phase with regard to flu syndromes”.
That is, we are at the peak: “Currently 40 percent of these are characterized by the influenza virus, 10 percent by Covid, the remainder are other viruses or respiratory bacteria. As far as Covid is concerned, the curve is deflecting: it means that we are witnessing a circulation that is decreasing. We can see it both from the incidence data and from that referring to the daily average of new positives admitted to our hospitals. It is clear that the strong pressure characterized above all by the flu virus can put medium intensity wards in difficulty these days. A recommendation to reiterate, after what was said before Christmas by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, still applies for the next few days: it is right to regain possession of the sociality linked to the holiday period, but in the presence of respiratory symptoms it is advisable to avoid those moments of sociality, especially compared to elderly or frail people. To give a simple example: it is good that the child with fever and cough does not go to his grandparents to eat”.
The doubts about the stability of the system are linked as always to the Emergency Department and intensive care and commenting on all this is Angelo Gratarola, Regional Health Councilor of the Liguria Region who recently succeeded Toti, but above all the former head of the Emergency Department of the San Martino Polyclinic, the largest hospital in Europe and then head of the Diar, which is the coordination of all emergency-urgency departments in Liguria.
In short, as he himself recalled in an interview with “Cross Shot”, Telenord transmission, to director Giampiero Timossi and myself: “It is as if I had been on the front line, and then general and now chief of staff”. Three very different roles, but which help to outline an overall picture: “Covid has been in retreat for a few days, but he is natural. Today the flu dominates, with heavier symptoms than in the past: this virus causes a fairly demanding pathology, especially in frail people, with other pathologies such as heart disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases. My invitation remains to get vaccinated to also receive the double administration of vaccines both against the flu and against Covid, for those who have not made the booster shots. This is what the citizen must do”.
In short, today the flu is in the foreground.
But the news from China is scary.
And commenting on them, from his retreat in Sauze d’Olux, where he rests for a few days after years on the front line, is the leading Italian infectious disease specialist, Matteo Bassetti: “What is happening in China is the definitive grave of the whole No vax: everything they said is happening, yes, but in reverse. The pandemic is lasting more than two years, the vaccines have saved us and Omicron, unlike what they said, is far from a walk in the park for those who are not vaccinated. It would be useful to make a reflection and I would like it to be bipartisan: we need to stop that attitude of lukewarmness, of skepticism that I have seen, in the last year, on the subject of vaccines. Today more than ever, in light of what is happening in China, everyone needs to be told that three doses are not enough. If you are over 65 or fragile, run and get the fourth dose!”
The director of the Infectious Diseases clinic of the San Martino Polyclinic also explains what can be done immediately: “The potential Chinese biological bomb must push us to do three fundamental things: check travelers coming from China with molecular swabs, not only at the Italian level but at a European level – given that 95 percent of those arriving in Italy arrive there through triangulation from other hubs – sequencing as much as possible to understand if there are Omicron mutations not yet known or different from Omicron itself, perhaps resistant to vaccines, and explain to those who have not yet done so to book for the booster dose: we are only talking about the over 65s and frail. If we do these simple and urgent, as well as fundamental, things, I believe we will be able to continue living our lives without dangerous returns to the past. It’s okay to be concerned, but there’s absolutely no need to be afraid. Attention to the phenomenon without alarmism “.
And all this with an international and not only Italian approach: “The United States introduces the mandatory swab and, if positive, isolation for two weeks for those arriving from China. All passengers two years of age and older from China will be required to be tested no more than two days before departure from China, Hong Kong and Macao, and show the negative result upon departure. Europe does the same right away, as Italy has done well today. It can’t wait. Let’s not make mistakes we already made three years ago.”
Here, the point is right here: millions of deaths are risked in China.
Europe and Italy – is Bassetti’s teaching – can avoid them simply by learning from the end of 2019-beginning of 2020. And over 65 and frail who have not yet made the booster, getting vaccinated immediately. No scaremongering, no underestimation.