The alarm bell gave the first ring. Those who hoped to have almost closed the pandemic chapter, and to be able to forget the terms “mask”, or “isolation”, will be disappointed in the face of the latest weekly monitoring data released by the control room of the Ministry of Health-Iss. Data that revive a concept that everyone was trying to archive: “We could be facing a new resurgence of the virus.” The explanation is “in the weekly incidence at the national level which is rapidly and generally increasing, in the week from 22 to 28 October compared to the previous one, just below the threshold of 50 cases per week per 100,000 inhabitants”. The estimated transmissibility on symptomatic cases is also increasing and around the epidemic threshold, like that on hospitalization cases, which follows the same trend. This trend, the report underlines, “must be monitored with extreme attention and, if confirmed, could herald an epidemic resurgence”.
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The RT returns to rise
So the numbers of the pandemic start to rise again. First the weekly incidence at national level, which reached 46 per 100,000 inhabitants against 34 per 100,000 in the period from 15 to 21 October last (data from the Ministry of Health). Furthermore, from 6 October to 19 October, the mean Rt calculated on symptomatic cases was 0.96 (range 0.83 – 1.16), just below the epidemic threshold, also increasing compared to the previous week. Above the epidemic threshold is Rt “augmented” (Rt = 1.14 – 1.13-1.16 – as of 19 October), calculated on partially complete data. Then there is the transmissibility index, based on cases with hospitalization, which is increased so much that it exceeds the epidemic threshold (1.13 against 0.89). Estimates that, notes the Ministry-Iss control room, “are believed to be insensitive to the recent increase in the number of swabs performed, since they are based only on symptomatic and / or hospitalized cases”.
But there is another disturbing fact: it is the sudden slowdown in the decline in hospitalizations. The employment rate in Intensive Care does not drop: it stops at 3.7% (the daily survey carried out by the Ministry dates back to 28 October). While the employment rate in medical areas nationwide rises to 4.5%. To complicate matters, there is a notable increase in the number of regions classified as moderate risk, which went from 4 to 18. Only 3 remain at low risk. In addition, 13 Regions report a resilience alert. It should be noted, then, the “sharp increase in the number of new cases not associated with transmission chains (6,264 against 4,759 in the previous week)”. The percentage of cases detected through contact tracing activity is stable (33%), as is that of cases detected through the appearance of symptoms (47%), while the share of diagnosed through screening rises (20% against the previous 19 %).
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“This trend is not surprising”
The virologist also speaks of a warning signal Giovanni Maga, director of the Cnr of Pavia, looking at the admissions that do not decrease. “We are witnessing an increase in the circulation of the virus, which however is not significantly reflected in the occupation of the medical area – he confirms -. Even if, at the same time, we must register a halt in the decline in hospitalizations, both for intensive care and for ordinary ones. In practice, admissions and discharges from hospitals are equalized. And this is a warning sign ”. But, Maga explains, “the increase in infections, which goes hand in hand with the growth of RT, is in a certain sense expected: we knew that this season there would be an increase in the circulation of Covid, because this season respiratory viruses are usually more present ”.
The effect of the massive return to work
According to the virologist it is a situation resulting from the “massive return of people to work”, a phenomenon that should be completed next week. “Then we will see how much all this has contributed to the spread of the virus,” he announces. So what needs to be done? Or what, if anything, is best avoided? “The conclusion is basically one: it is not the time to abandon the preventive measures, I am referring to the need to wear a mask indoors and avoid gatherings – insists Maga -. Another important thing is to continue vaccinating, because we have millions of Italians who have not yet done so: in the age group between 40 and 69 there are more than 3 million people; between 30 and 39 years, 1 million and 200 thousand. And I remember that over the age of 50 you risk hospitalization “. “A forecast? I think that for the next two weeks we are facing a worsening trend – he concludes -. It’s hard to say how the virus will move, but the more cautious we are, the better. Only in this way, probably, will we be able to break the equation between the increase in infections and the increase in hospital admissions “.
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