From Ukraine to Europe, the risk of war against Russia cannot be ignored. “The possibility of a high-intensity conventional war in Europe can no longer be ruled out. Almost all European capitals are now working on this scenario, obviously hoping that it will never materialize,” says EU High Representative Josep Borrell, speaking at Georgetown University in Washington.
From Berlin, the words of French President Emmanuel Macron echo after the summit with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
France, Germany and Poland: pact for Kiev
France, Germany and Poland are “united and determined to never let Russia win. We share a conviction: our security and our future are at stake in Ukraine”, continues the French president, adding that “we will continue as we have done from day one to never take the initiative for any escalation.”
Words that appear in line with those pronounced in the same hours in Italy by Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani: “I believe that NATO should not enter Ukraine. It would be a mistake to enter, we must help Ukraine defend itself, but we must enter to making war on Russia means risking World War III.”
“All three of us are very serious in our support for Ukraine. More than ever our strength is unity. And our three states, Germany, France and Poland, have a special responsibility in this regard,” says Scholz, after the recent frictions with Paris regarding policy towards Ukraine. Solidarity and common actions are essential to defend peace and freedom in Europe, Scholz continues, underlining that aid to Kiev will not decrease.
“We are firmly at Ukraine’s side,” he reiterates, although Berlin has no intention of sending Taurus missiles to Kiev which, with their range, would allow the Ukrainian armed forces to inflict damage at depth.
In the background, remain the words pronounced by Macron in the interview on Thursday 14 March with France 2 and TF1. When asked about the possible sending of French troops to Ukraine, the president replied: ”We are not sure we will do it. At the moment we are not in this situation, but we do not exclude this option. We are not at war with Russia, but we must not let it win”. There is enough to push the Kremlin to consider France “already involved” in the conflict.
Weapons and not soldiers in Ukraine. At the moment
The priority, therefore, remains support for Kiev through the supply of weapons. “The context is very worrying but you can be sure that Europe’s position towards Ukraine will not weaken. Nor should America’s. There are lessons to be learned from history: appeasement and isolationism have not worked in the past,” says Borrell, highlighting that “today the question is not even whether Europeans or Americans should ‘die for Donbass’. It is, rather, whether we are willing to provide the necessary assistance to help Ukrainians stop dying for Donbass, and for the rest of their country”, he continues.
The EU and the lesson from history
“Our lesson from history must be that if we allow Russia to wipe Ukraine off the map, we will pay a much higher price later. In Europe, this realization has largely unified our strategic view of Russia. The overwhelming “The majority of Europeans now see Russia as a direct threat to their security. This sentiment is widely shared from Riga to Lisbon,” he says.
On the other hand, Russia is led by Vladimir Putin: for the president “Russian lives cost little. But Ukraine has neither the means nor the desire to sacrifice a large part of its population. With the increase in lethality of war, this disparity between the two societies increases, shifting further in Russia’s favor.” “The second reason why the war in Ukraine has entered a new stage is that Russia is waging an asymmetric war. To win it is enough not to lose, while Ukraine needs to win in order not to lose. This is a fundamental difference “.
“Moscow has adapted – continues Borrell – by strengthening its defensive positions, exploiting its advantages in terms of ammunition, manpower, drones and electronic warfare. For Russia, what matters is that Ukrainian losses are proportionately much greater than its own, in line with the well-known principles of wars of attrition. Rightly or wrongly, Russia believes it has time. That is why calls for negotiations are useless now, unless – he concluded – Ukraine is expected to simply give up.”
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