Global warming could quadruple heat-related deaths if immediate steps are not taken to limit the temperature rise to below 1.5 degrees. This is indicated in the 2023 report Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Changethe result of the work of 114 experts from 52 research institutes and UN agencies.
The report
Published ahead of Cop28, the United Nations conference dedicated to climate and the environment, the report indicates that, without new measures, the number of deaths due to heat could increase by 4.7 times, or 370%, by mid-century. . It also finds that more frequent heat waves could cause food insecurity for an additional 525 million people between 2041 and 2060, exacerbating the global risk of malnutrition. The report also considers 47 indicators on the health benefits of climate mitigation.
The reduction of emissions
“The mitigation efforts seen so far have been decidedly insufficient to safeguard people’s health and safety,” he says Marina Romanello, head of the Lancet Countdown at University College London -. With 1,337 tonnes of CO2 emitted per second, we are not reducing emissions fast enough to keep climate dangers within levels that health systems can manage. There is a huge human cost to inaction.” 2023 saw the highest global temperatures ever recorded and an average of 86 days of health-threatening high temperatures were experienced in 2018-2022. The victims of the heat among the over-65s increased by 85% in the period 2013 to 2022 compared to the period 1991 to 2000. Furthermore, in 2021, compared to the period between 1981 and 2010, the number of people who experienced food insecurity.
More deadly infectious diseases
It also accelerates the spread of potentially lethal infectious diseases, such as those caused by Vibrio bacteria, putting 1.4 billion people at risk for diseases such as diarrhea, serious infections and septicemia (23% to 39% more cases). Economic losses resulting from extreme weather events are estimated at $264 billion in 2022, 23% more than the period 2010-2014. Finally, a potential loss of 490 billion working hours globally in 2022 is estimated (+42% compared to the period 1991-2000). The greatest impact, the report notes, falls on people living in the poorest countries.
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