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I BRING – Greetings – News – ITALY

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In February 2023, it is estimated that the national consumer price index for the whole community (NIC), gross of tobacco, registers an increase of 0.2% on a monthly basis and 9.1% on an annual basis, from +10.0% in the previous month; the preliminary estimate was +9.2%.

The slowdown in inflation is primarily due to the accentuating decline on a year-on-year basis in the prices of regulated energy goods (from -12.0% to -16.4%) and the deceleration of those of unregulated energy ( from +59.3% to +40.8%), the effects of which were only partially offset by the acceleration in food prices, both processed (from +14.9% to +15.5%) and unprocessed (from +8.0% to +8.7%), of those of Tobacco (from a zero trend variation to +1.8%), of the prices of recreational, cultural and personal care services (from +5 .5% to +6.1%) and Services relating to transport (from +5.9% to +6.4%).

“Core inflation”, excluding energy and fresh food, accelerates from +6.0% to +6.3%, that excluding energy alone from +6.2% to +6.4% .

The growth on an annual basis in the prices of goods slows down (from +14.1% to +12.4%), while on the contrary that relating to services is accentuated (from +4.2% to +4.4%). bringing the inflation differential between the services and goods sectors to -8.0 percentage points, from -9.9 in January.

The prices of food, home and personal care products recorded an acceleration in trend terms (from +12.0% to +12.7%), while those of frequently purchased products remained almost stable ( from +8.9% to +9.0%).

The cyclical increase in the general index is mainly due to the prices of unprocessed food (+2.4%), tobacco (+1.9%), processed food (+0.9%), services relating to transport (+0.8%), durable goods (+0.7%), non-durable goods (+0.6%), recreational, cultural and personal care services (+0.5%) and services relating to housing (+0.4%); a containment effect instead derives from the drop in energy prices, both regulated (-4.9%) and unregulated (-4.2%).

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The inflation acquired for 2023 is equal to +5.4% for the general index and +3.7% for the core component.

The harmonized index of consumer prices (IPCA) increased by 0.1% on a monthly basis and by 9.8% on an annual basis (a slowdown from +10.7% in January); the preliminary estimate was +9.9%.

The national consumer price index for blue-collar and white-collar households (FOI), net of tobacco, recorded an increase of 0.2% on a monthly basis and 8.9% on an annual basis.

The comment
In February, the phase of rapid slowdown in inflation consolidates (down to +9.1%). The decrease is the result of the easing of tensions on the prices of Energy Goods, both for the regulated and non-regulated component. However, the upward pressures of prices in the sector of processed and non-processed food goods, tobacco and services continued, almost all of which are accelerating on a trend basis. As a consequence of these trends, the growth on an annual basis of the core component (+6.3%) and that of the so-called “shopping cart”, which goes back to +12.7%, after the slowdown observed in January, accentuated.

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