RKI report: New Corona numbers indicate a trend reversal
Email Share More Twitter Print Feedback Report an error
Spotted an Error?
Please mark the relevant words in the text. With just two clicks you can report the error to the editorial team.
There is no genetic engineering in the plant
But don’t worry: they are genetically modified
In mid-December, the Corona wave seemed to be building up. After the high-contact holidays, numerous new infections were expected. But the latest report from the Robert Koch Institute is surprising.
Before the holidays, the number of corona infections rose significantly. The many visits and contacts on Christmas and New Year’s Eve must have increased the infection rate even further – right?
A look at the current weekly report from the Robert Koch Institute reveals: This may perhaps apply to flu and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus). With Sars-CoV-2, however, a different picture emerges. The most important Corona numbers at a glance.
1. Corona incidence
Currently, seven percent of all people suffering from respiratory infections have Covid-19, and influenza viruses are currently the most common (22 percent).
According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the current 7-day incidence is 10 Covid-19 cases per week and 100,000 inhabitants (as of January 18, 2024). This means it is around 36 percent lower than the previous week. As the RKI reports, the number of infections has been falling since mid-December. However, the experts assume that the number of unreported cases is high – also because significantly fewer people are now being tested for Corona than at the height of the pandemic.
The RKI estimates how high this is using the so-called GrippeWeb Sentinel. Germans aged 16 and over can register on the portal and state whether or not they had a new respiratory illness in the previous week. “From this we can calculate the proportion of the population that had a new respiratory disease,” writes the RKI. The estimated corona incidence is therefore included 500 (Previous week: 700).
2. Hospitalization incidence
The number of people who need to be treated in a hospital because of a corona infection also fell compared to the previous week – by 32 percent. It is included in the current reporting week (week 2). 2.4 Covid-19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (As of 18 January 2024).
In comparison: Among the patients who had to be hospitalized because of a serious respiratory infection, 12 percent were infected with Corona.
3. Corona patients in the intensive care unit
Have to at the moment 586 corona infected people treated in an intensive care unit become (As of January 17, 2024). Compared to the previous week (762), this is a decrease of 23 percent.
In relation: 11 percent of patients who required intensive care because of a serious respiratory disease had Covid-19.
4. Corona-related deaths
The number of corona-related deaths fell slightly compared to the previous week – by three percent. As of January 18, 2024 became 464 deaths related to Covid-19 reported.
5. Viral load in wastewater
Wastewater is an important indicator when analyzing the current infection dynamics. Corona infected people, who are sometimes unaware of their illness because of mild symptoms, excrete fragments of the Sars-CoV-2 virus when they go to the toilet. The viral load can therefore reflect the infection process somewhat more accurately than the incidence.
But the wastewater also confirms the trend that the incidences have already outlined. The aggregate viral load has been declining since mid-December, as have the number of infections.
According to the current data, which refers to the week from January 4th to 10th (as of January 17th, 2024), there were currently 255,000 corona gene copies in one liter of wastewater – 23 percent fewer than in the previous week.
During this period, 85 of a total of 136 participating sewage treatment plants in various German cities sent in wastewater samples for analysis. They cover 15.6 percent of the nationwide population.
Accordingly, the viral load had fallen in numerous locations. However, it rose in twelve cities:
Aalen (Baden-Württemberg) Braunschweig (Lower Saxony) Celle (Lower Saxony) Hanau (Hesse) Hanover (Lower Saxony), locations Hanover-Gümmerwald and Hanover-Herrenhausen Kiel (Schleswig-Holstein) Osnabrück (Lower Saxony) Schwäbisch-Hall (Baden-Württemberg) Tübingen (Baden-Württemberg) Weil am Rhein (Baden-Württemberg) Wolfsburg (Lower Saxony) Kellinghusen (Schleswig-Holstein)
However, the wastewater monitoring for the epidemiological situation assessment (AMELAG) points out that late reports due to the holidays can still lead to retroactive changes.
Conclusion: The number of new corona infections, hospitalized and intensive care patients, deaths and the viral load in wastewater have been declining for several weeks. Nevertheless, the experts appeal to the older population in particular to get vaccinated and thus protect themselves from a serious and possibly fatal course. According to the RKI, 96 percent of those who have died are currently 60 years old and older.
rfe/pn/psch