A collapse in effectiveness for AstraZeneca and a significant drop for Pfizer. Two doses of vaccine against the Covid they are not enough to ward off contagion from variante Omicron: the data emerges from the new report of the Health Security Agency, the British health security agency. The good news, however, is that the so-called dose booster significantly raises protection up to about 75%. The study was based on the analysis of 581 almost from Omicron variant and thousands of Delta: one is estimated transmissibility very high and an exponential growth of cases. The bottom line is that by Christmas in the UK it will be possible to get to over a million infections. But it’s not the only date to scare the London government: a study of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine provides between 25mil and the 75 thousand victims by April, or in the next few 5 months.
Initial analyzes in the UK with respect to the Omicron and Delta variants confirm that the vaccines are less effective to stop the new variant. According to HSA estimates, two doses of Astrazeneca they offer no protection from contagion with Omicron, while the protection with two Pfizer doses is lowered to about 40%. In both cases, however, the third dose it traces the protection from contagion to 75%. However, it is still too early to understand whether there is also a decline in protection from the risk of a serious illness. For now, the British health safety agency has it anyway confirmed that vaccines offer a good protection against serious cases of Covid for which the recovery.
The UK report also reports an increase in the number of reinfections: the 7% of Omicron cases concern people who already had coronavirus, while this data stops at 0,4% regarding Delta. But the comparison that most worries is the one that concerns the transmissibility: the 19% of the cases of Omicron resulted outbreaks family members versus 8.5% with Delta. For this reason, as the Delta variant is quickly becoming the predominant one, the British agency estimates at this point that by mid-December over half of the cases in the UK they will be of the variante Omicron. The infections grow exponentially, with a doubling time to three days. For this reason, the agency concludes, if growth were to continue unchanged it could be achieved over a million infections by the end of the month.
On the basis of these data, the government of Boris Johnson wonders about the need to adopt new restrictions, in addition to “Plan B“Just entered into force. And to put further pressure on Downing Street comes the study reported today by Guardian: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine experts estimate that in the scenario more optimistic (Omicron’s low immune escape from vaccines and high efficacy of boosters), a wave of infections is expected that could lead to a total of 175,000 hospital admissions e 24,700 deaths between 1 December of this year and the end of April 2022. The scenario more pessimistic examined by the experts (high immune escape from vaccines and less efficacy of boosters) predicts a wave of infections that is likely to lead to a peak of 492,000 hospital admissions (about double that recorded in January 2021) e 74,800 deaths by April.
The two scenarios, the study specifies, do not take into account additional restrictive measures that could be introduced. However, experts stress the need for new tight, because they believe that wearing a mask and working from home are not enough restrictions. Despite the uncertainties about Omicron “these early projections help guide the our understanding of potential futures in a rapidly changing situation, ”he stressed Rosanna Barnard, who co-directed the research, stating that “our worst case scenario suggests that we may have to endure stricter restrictions to ensure that the National Health Service is not overwhelmed: it is crucial that decision makers consider the wider social impact of these measures, not just epidemiology ”.