The Fanpage.it interview with Carolina De Stefano, professor of History and Politics of Russia at the LUISS University of Rome, on the eve of the first anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine: “The military campaign goes on and there are no prospects immediate resolution. Eyes on China, which could play a role of mediator in the conflict”.
Interview with Carolina De Stefano
Professor of History and Politics of Russia at the LUISS University of Rome.
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“On the eve of the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine we can say that the campaign will go ahead, also because we don’t see perspectives immediate resolution”.
She is convinced of it Carolina De Stefanoprofessor of History and Politics of Russia at the LUISS University of Rome, who a Fanpage.it made an assessment of the first year of war in Ukraine and a reflection on how the conflict could evolve in the coming months in light of President Putin’s address to the nation given today exactly one year after the start of what he continues to define “special operation“. The event will be held on February 24th at the LUISS Campus “Ukraine, one year later”to reflect on the current situation and future prospects awaiting the Ukrainian people.
Prof. De Stefano, what assessment can we make of this war?
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“The campaign goes on and there are no prospects for an immediate resolution, on the contrary. Russia’s fronts against the West have radicalized, with the latter appearing more united with growing support for Ukraine, confirmed by Biden’s visit yesterday in Kiev.
In the last year we have witnessed a crescendo of this opposition, culminating in the only truly revealing announcement that Putin has made today in terms of foreign policy with the renunciation of implementing the New Start, which is the last agreement that remained in force .
From the point of view military, the campaign went badly, with a balance already foreseeable after the first months of the war. It was clear that it would not have been easy for Ukraine to push back the Russians, with the latter failing to break through on the other side. We will have one situation still tense for the next few months. It must be understood whether this counter-offensive that the Russians are preparing will have the capacity to change the situation on the ground and to increase the confrontation we were talking about.
Furthermore, we are witnessing the evolution of the Putinian regime which has changed its nature and which is institutionalizing the traits of a state at war with a war economy”.
Speaking of the economy, Putin said in his speech today that Western sanctions have not had the desired effect. What’s the situation?
“As far as the economy is concerned, data has recently come out on the fact that it has actually gone less badly in terms of GDP this year than was initially forecast. Then there is always the problem of defining the objective of the sanctions The general belief that sanctions can lead to the collapse of a system, which in turn has important reserves, is a stated but not very realistic goal, at least in the medium to long term.
There was definitely a economic impact, this can also be seen from the testimonies of those who are, for example, active in the automotive market sector, which has collapsed. As Putin spoke today – and this is Russia’s big bet – this is a transitional phase, they accept to make sacrifices because they think that the economy can then be redirected towards other realities, such as Chinese e India“.
Putin leveraged the opposition between the West and Russia several times during his speech. What role can China play in this context?
“Today the Chinese foreign minister is in Russia after a tour that also included a trip to Italy. The Chinese also announced that on February 24, the anniversary of the invasion, President Xi will propose to the general assembly Him and peace planwhich they will then discuss with Putin.
What is interesting is that China, more clearly than in recent months, is trying to present itself as a possible mediator of the conflict. There is at least the possibility that Beijing will play a role in this negotiation attempt, even if, in my opinion, there are few openings for such an operation at the moment. It will be interesting to see what this plan is all about and how Russia implements it.”
Putin spoke of victory, it is difficult to imagine a negotiation…
“It’s very difficult, but even in this case we need to establish what victory means. I think there will be a moment when Putin will sell partial victory and any territorial conquests as victory. But victory as the one he could have achieved at the beginning, when he tried to there was no entry into Kiev, so whatever happens it is a victory that from an objective point of view is not a victory. It is another thing to get to a point where he will be able to say that he has won to his own population”.
When do you think it will get to this point?
“Hard to say, but I don’t see it in the short term. It should come when the Russians actually decide they can’t afford to go on because the costs of the conflict have become too high.”
Returning to the New Start treaty, Putin once again spoke of nuclear power. Do you think this is pure rhetoric or can we expect something else?
“Nuclear deterrence is a tool that Putin uses because objectively it is the only thing for which Russia can be defined as a great power compared to others. At the moment we are still on the level of rhetoric. Of course, the decision is not a good sign to suspend the New Start, but mostly because it reflects the deterioration of the situation.
It doesn’t necessarily mean they are willing to increase the number of nuclear warheads. I don’t know if the road is that of further rearmament but it is certainly a symbol of a continuous reduction in relations between the two powers, which creates the possibility of a further escalation in perspective”.