why it is more contagious and what will happen

Possible hypotheses and countermeasures

The Delta variant, which has been circulating for some time in Italy and appears to be dominant, is characterized by greater transmissibility compared to the alpha variant (between 40% and 60%) and is associated with the risk of infection in partially vaccinated or unvaccinated individuals. In this sense, the Delta Plus appears even more formidable and somehow represents a further change of gear for the virus.

In the face of variants that have been known but which then failed to establish themselves in the epidemiological panorama, such as the Beta, the Alpha and the Delta have managed to dominate the situation. in their research, the American experts therefore tried to make a sort of mathematical “prediction” through a model that simulates the way in which pandemics fueled by hypothetical variants would affect populations using various combinations of countermeasures, from the use of masks more or less extended up to the distance between people, in addition of course to the vaccinations available.

With these characteristics of analysis we then tried to see what it could be the path of the pandemic. It has been seen that a variant such as the Delta plus, which increases its transmission and contagion capacity, appears to be more fearful on the population front than it could be with a viral strain which, on the contrary, has been modified in order to avoid partially the action of the immune defenses.

The problem is that if the two characteristics are combined, that is the possibility for the virus to be easily transmitted and therefore potentially capable of infecting a large number of people with its ability to not respond correctly to the immune defenses, one could have a sort of really troubling picture. Much more than what could occur with just one of the two “options” on the part of the most circulating viral strains.

However, one certainty remains: vaccination according to the researchers it appears a very significant shield, both because it should allow to prevent a higher number of cases and because it could lead to less serious clinical pictures, and therefore affect mortality. According to experts, in fact, having fewer people vaccinated there will still be more cases of infection.