Consumption steadily recovers and improves quality, and continues to play the role of “stabilizer” and “ballast stone”-Zhejiang Online

2021 is the first year of the “14th Five-Year Plan”. my country is accelerating the construction of a new development pattern, steadily implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand, coordinating the promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and various measures for cross-cycle adjustment are in place. A series of measures to expand consumption. The effect of the measures has continued to show, the market supply and demand cycle has been further smoothed, and residents’ consumption has shown the characteristics of steady recovery and stable quality improvement, and continued to play the role of “stabilizer” and “ballast stone” to maintain the stable operation of the national economy.

1. The steady recovery of consumption in 2021 is hard-won

Consumption has shown a steady recovery, and its fundamental role in economic development has been consolidated. Withstanding severe challenges such as the spread of the epidemic and extreme weather, the total retail sales of consumer goods for the year reached 44.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5% ​​and an average growth rate of 3.9% in the two years. An increase of 5.8%, which is already faster than the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in 2019. In 2021, final consumption expenditure will drive economic growth by 5.3 percentage points, and its contribution rate to economic growth will increase to 65.4%. It is the main engine for stabilizing economic growth, and provides strong support for accelerating the construction of a new development pattern and achieving common prosperity for all people.

The employment and income situation is stable and improving, and consumption has stabilized “with confidence”. The measures of “six stability” and “six guarantees” continued to be effective, measures for targeted relief of small, medium and micro enterprises were put in place, the assistance mechanism for enterprises to stabilize jobs was normalized, and the operating conditions of market entities continued to improve, thus stabilizing employment and driving income recovery. On the one hand, the overall employment and income situation is improving. In 2021, 12.69 million new urban jobs will be created. The national average urban survey unemployment rate is 5.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from the 2020 average. The national per capita disposable income is 35,000 yuan. , the actual growth rate was 8.1%, and the average growth rate in the two years was 5.1%, which was basically in sync with the economic growth; on the other hand, the income distribution structure was more optimized, the average wage income increased by 7.0% in the two years, and the average per capita transfer net income increased by 7.3% in the two years. %, the support for improving consumption expectations and increasing consumption willingness has increased.

Precise measures were taken to deal with short-term shocks, and consumption stabilized with “confidence”. Relevant departments and cities have strengthened the supply of living materials to ensure that daily necessities are not out of stock and kept in stalls, and that food and clothing commodities are in sufficient quantities and prices are stable. All localities have improved the normalized epidemic prevention and control of consumption sites, strictly implemented measures such as verification of green codes, maintaining distances, and limiting the flow of appointments, and improved contactless service functions. The tourism market showed a step-like recovery throughout the year. Short-distance tours and tours around the city stabilized some of the fundamentals. The National Tourism Economic Operation Comprehensive Index released by the China Tourism Academy entered the boom range of 102.38 points. In the context of supply constraints such as the global “chip shortage”, domestic measures to promote automobile consumption have accelerated. According to the Passenger Car Association, domestic passenger car retail sales in 2021 will increase by 4.4% year-on-year, reaching a total of 20.146 million units.

2. The upgrading of consumption structure has been accelerated, and the quality of consumption has been significantly improved

The supply and demand cycle will be further accelerated, and the endogenous driving force of consumption upgrade will be strengthened. On the one hand, consumption upgrading leads supply innovation, and drives the related consumer goods manufacturing industry to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of intelligent, green and low-carbon. Taking automobiles as an example, the trend of electrification, intelligence and networking is obvious. In 2021, new energy passenger vehicles will increase by 169% year-on-year, and the market penetration rate will reach 14.8%, an increase of 9 percentage points compared with 2020. On the other hand, the adaptability of the supply system to consumption has been enhanced. In order to meet the consumption upgrade needs of residents, new technologies, new formats and new models have developed rapidly, and the creation of products and products with richer content, better quality and higher cost performance has been accelerated. service supply. For example, the main “national trendy brands” cater to the consumption preferences of the “post-95s” group, boldly innovate and expand the market, and have achieved good results on the new online retail platform.

Upgraded consumption recovered quickly, and the proportion of service consumption expanded. In 2021, my country’s per capita GDP will reach US$12,530, which is close to the threshold of high-income countries. It has entered a period of rapid upgrading of consumption structure and rapid growth of consumption expenditure. In particular, the per capita GDP of some developed regions in China has reached the level of high-income countries, which is more support for consumption upgrading. obvious. In addition to the impact of the return of overseas consumption during the epidemic, in 2021, the gold and silver jewelry, cosmetics, communication equipment, and cultural office supplies of units above the designated size will increase by 29.8%, 14.0%, 14.6% and 18.8%, respectively, which is significantly faster than the overall growth rate. The proportion of consumption that focuses on services has expanded. The three categories of consumption expenditures in transportation and communication, education, culture and entertainment, and medical care accounted for 13.1%, 10.8%, and 8.8%, respectively, all of which were larger than the previous year.

The rapid expansion of new consumption has injected strong momentum into the stabilization of consumption. Under the background of normalized epidemic prevention, the integration of online and offline has been accelerated, new consumption scenarios and new business forms have developed rapidly, and consumption time and space have been significantly expanded. The business activity indexes of industries such as postal express, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services related to online consumption are all in a relatively high boom range. As the world‘s largest online retail market, my country’s online retail sales of physical goods will reach 10.8 trillion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, and an average two-year growth of 13.4%, which is 3.4 times the growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods in the same period. An increase of 24%, and an average of 300 million pieces per day has become the norm.

Consumption environment continued to be optimized, and consumer service satisfaction improved. In recent years, my country has continuously strengthened the construction of the consumer credit system and quality standard system, improved the diversified consumer rights protection mechanism and dispute resolution mechanism, strengthened platform anti-monopoly, and strictly punished illegal activities such as unfair competition and intellectual property infringement. Make consumers feel at ease and comfortable consumption environment.

3. Looking forward to 2022, favorable conditions for improving consumption while maintaining stability will increase

In 2022, it is expected that the global epidemic will be gradually brought under effective control, and various domestic measures to promote consumption policies will be put into effect. Consumption will maintain a recovery growth trend and is expected to continue to recover. The domestic employment situation is generally stable, people’s livelihood is more robust, and income and economic growth continue to keep pace, which will provide a solid guarantee for steady consumption. At the same time, further relaxation of market access in the service sector will help fully stimulate market vitality and increase high-quality supply to dynamically match the upgrade of consumer demand.

There are more consumption growth points that can be expected in 2022. The Olympic ice and snow economy will drive the development of ice and snow tourism in the northern region, expand the ice and snow competition performance market, create ice and snow sports brand events, and fully tap the consumption potential of national ice and snow sports. With the acceleration of the national overall planning of basic endowment insurance and the accelerated implementation of fertility policies such as “three-child” encouragement, the consumption of “silver hair” and “young teeth” is expected to speed up the expansion and upgrade, and drive the consumption of related groups and families. Implementing city-specific policies to promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry, and speeding up the development of the long-term rental market, will help to expand residential consumption in an orderly manner. In the context of the in-depth integration of 5G + artificial intelligence + Internet of Things, new consumption will show a development trend of vigorous upward, faster growth, larger volume, and continuous expansion of models and formats. Vigorously promote green certified products, promote the widespread acceptance of green certification results, and promote e-commerce platforms and distribution companies such as shopping malls and supermarkets to open green and low-carbon product zones, and expand the green consumer market for residents. Comprehensively promoting rural revitalization and improving the quality of new urbanization construction will help drive consumer goods and services such as new energy vehicles and green smart home appliances to the countryside, thereby further unlocking rural consumption potential. (Guo Liyan, Director and Researcher of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of the China Academy of Macroeconomics)