Covid vaccine, will a third dose really be needed? The positions of the yes, who will be involved and what the scientists say in 4 cards

UDINE. On the third dose, the world of science is divided, while big pharma is already pressing, with preliminary studies that would demonstrate the loss of efficacy of vaccines starting from the sixth month. But above all by announcing updated versions of the virus able to muzzle even the Delta. For now, the step forward has only been made by Israel, which on Sunday will begin to inject the “booster”, as the recall is called in pharmaceutical jargon, to over 60s who have had the last injection for at least 5 months.

Meanwhile, the EU Commission is reserving 1.8 billion doses of the updated Pfizer-BioNTech model plus 150 million of the Modern one, waiting for the EMA to dissolve the reserve and say yes or no. It’s Italy? Here, scientists are also squabbling about its usefulness and the director of Prevention of the Ministry of Hope, the super-expert Gianni Rezza, admits that “on the third dose there is indecision because strong evidence is still lacking”. But then it also makes it clear to whom it will probably be administered: “immunosuppressed, frail patients, the elderly and health personnel”. At least 16 million Italians.

Enough to restart a vaccination machine still stressed by the administration of the first two doses. “If they want to do me a favor, they should decide not to do it, because it is another great effort for our medical staff,” admits the Venetian president Luca Zaia. Which, however, is left to the decisions of the scientists, “let them tell us, not politics, whether it is needed or not”.

But there is already a battle between real and alleged virologists, with the two parties divided, while Speranza seems to have already decided: the third dose will be done but neither at 6 nor even 9 months after the second, because the first immunized with the experiments are still protected . While spacing the “booster” by a year there are two advantages: perhaps having already approved the anti Delta versions of the vaccine and having already closed with the administration of the first two doses.

Many virologists have for some time been explaining that it is not necessary to do the antibody count in the blood to understand if we are immunized or not compared to Covid. This is because our immune system retains a cellular memory of the virus. When this enters the body after vaccination, the lymphocytes, the sentinel cells of our immune system, recognize it and activate the production of immunoglobulins, the IGGs detected by the positive swab. For now we don’t know how long this cellular memory lasts.

Judging by the very first vaccinated individuals subjected to trials in 2020, at least one year. For this reason, speaking now of a third dose for several scientists would only mean giving a gift to big-pharma, engulfing our health machine again. “For the moment the third dose is a shot,” says the director of infectious diseases of the sack of Milan, Massimo Galli. “I got vaccinated on the first day, so according to the logic of a health bureaucracy, my vaccination would now expire like a yogurt. Before taking a third dose they have to convince me that I don’t have an immune response. ‘ And many virologists think like him.

Looking at Pfizer’s latest study, there are few doubts: the third dose must be done, soon and more or less at all. According to a preliminary study by the US giant, not yet peer-reviewed, that is to say the judgment of the scientific community, the messenger RNA vaccine would in fact lose its effectiveness within six months, dropping from 96 to 84%. While a second study calculated an average decrease of 6% every two months in protection from even minor forms of disease.

The Moderna vaccine after six months would prove to be 90% effective against non-serious Covid symptoms and 95% compared to the most dangerous cases of the disease. Obviously the companies that produce them have every interest in pushing on the so-called “booster” dose. For this reason, the national and international scientific community is waiting for more solid data before deciding when and to whom to make the call bis. But in favor of the “booster” there is a second element: both Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna have an updated version of the vaccine at an advanced stage, calibrated in an anti-Delta function and which could prove effective even against its latest and more aggressive version. “plus”, which is bringing India to its knees again.

Israel is still the forerunner, making the third dose of Pfizer vaccine available as early as Sunday. On a voluntary basis, it can be administered to all citizens over 60 who have received the second injection for at least 5 months. The example was given by President Isaac Herzog, who already had the “booster” administered yesterday. At the moment Israel is the first country to have taken such a step, even if the debate has opened in the US, where Fauci fears, however, that the third dose is read as evidence of poor vaccine efficacy. However, the European Commission is already taking steps to avoid being caught unprepared.

“We are aware that a third dose may be needed, we have concluded a third contract with Pfizer-BioNTech, booking 1.8 billion doses,” they reveal in Brussels. “To be prepared – we also exercised the option for 150 million doses for the second contract with Moderna.” However, the EMA takes time, affirms that “it is too early to confirm if and when a booster dose will be needed”. The WHO is even colder: “Let’s think of poor countries,” they say from Geneva, referring to the many who have not seen even one dose.

Few of us think that the third dose, if it ever proves useful, should be given to everyone. “Immunosuppressed people will probably be revaccinated with a single booster dose,” admits the director of Prevention of the health ministry, Gianni Rezza. Who then extends the list “to the frail, to the elderly, to get to health workers”, specifying however that “there is a discussion on these also in Europe and a decision has not yet been reached”.

It would be a question of putting the vaccination campaign back in order for at least 16 million Italians, because 14 are only the over 65s. An operation that would involve 300 million euros by requesting other overtime from doctors and nurses, already subjected to stress tests with the pandemic. The direct impact on Italians would instead be that of having to revalidate their green pass to access a large part of social life and be able to continue to move freely both along the boot and abroad. Because if the expiration of vaccines were set at nine months, or as more likely at one year, the coveted green certification would automatically lose value at that date.