[Foresight Quick Review]Putin plotted against Xi Jinping for major leaks in Russia? | Ukraine War | Russia | Xi Jinping

[Epoch Times March 03, 2022]Hello friends, today is March 2 (Wednesday), welcome to “Foresight Quick Review”, I am Tang Jingyuan.

Today’s focus: There are frequent major leaks in Russia, and Putin’s military is unstable? The strategy of the Russian army has changed dramatically, and Kyiv is facing an unprecedented fierce battle; plotting against Xi Jinping? The Russian embassy throws out a blockbuster article.

Today, we will pay attention to some key news of the Ukraine war first, because the impact of the war situation in this week on the future international community is very important, including the possibility of a third world war that many friends are very concerned about. There will be some discussion.

With the expansion of the war process, all kinds of news are chaotic and complex, and our discussion here can only be based on the most reliable information that can be seen at present, and there are inevitably inaccuracies and mistakes in judgment.

But as I have said to my friends many times before, I am an ordinary self-media, and this platform is also the place where everyone speaks. As long as it is not malicious personal attacks or money postings, we are all very welcome. Everyone expresses their opinions here.

[Putin escalates the war and re-issues the threat of nuclear weapons]

Let’s talk about the situation in Russia first. As far as the overall war situation is concerned, it is basically still in a state of stalemate. According to Jack Deutch, a senior Pentagon official, the Pentagon estimates that the Russian army has put more than 80% of its preset troops into the Ukrainian battlefield, but due to fuel and maintenance problems, the Russian army has been unable to advance to Kyiv. Not only did they run out of gasoline, And lack of food.

So far, the Russian army has still not been able to fully control even a large city in Ukraine. Even in the Luhansk region, which Russia fully controls and claims to be independent, it is reported that the Ukrainian army captured a branch of the city hospital in Lisichansk. At the same time, a stronghold was established in the 14th school and the 12th middle school.

The stalemate of the war situation is obviously unfavorable to the Russian army, so since yesterday, Putin seems to have changed his strategy, turning to not talking about martial arts, and indiscriminately attacking a few big cities. The most iconic action is to gather a large number of military forces to prepare Encircle Kyiv.

Maybe everyone has seen the relevant news. Satellite images show that a Russian military convoy with a length of more than 60 kilometers is advancing towards the capital Kyiv. This convoy is from the southern suburbs of Antonov Airport (about 25 kilometers from the center of Kyiv) Extends to the northern suburbs of Priebersk.

The Russian army even issued an ultimatum-style warning, saying that a passage could be set aside for the Kyiv people to evacuate, otherwise the consequences would be at your own risk. In addition, the Russian army bombed civilian residential areas in Kharkiv in the north and Malibo, a big city in the south, resulting in a large number of casualties.

Correspondingly, Amnesty International warned that the Russian army used cluster bombs, which are widely banned by the international community, and even attacked a kindergarten in northeastern Ukraine in the presence of civilian refugees.

The Ukrainian ambassador to the United States, Oksana Makarova, confirmed publicly for the first time that the Russian army used vacuum bombs in the bombing, which are weapons prohibited by the Geneva Convention. Commonly known as the father of bombs, vacuum bombs are the most powerful conventional bombs.

A small, quick military operation planned by Putin has turned into a full-scale war that requires the use of the most destructive conventional weapons, reflecting the progress of the war beyond Putin’s control.

Another sign that Putin is on the verge of getting out of control is that after he publicly ordered nuclear weapons into combat readiness two days ago and issued a nuclear threat, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov issued another threat today, saying that the third world war will be “nuclear war, devastating. war”.

This statement is extremely absurd, right? If Russia was invaded, and now Moscow is under siege, and the country is about to be destroyed, it is understandable that you warned me to use nuclear weapons to defend myself. But now the Russian army is invading other people’s countries and besieging other people’s capitals. It is the Russian army that has the upper hand. You actually threatened me with nuclear weapons. What does this mean?

I think it can only explain one point: Putin was stunned by the stubborn resistance of Ukraine and the all-round sanctions of the international community, and he was in a mess. This even made him feel that his own power was in a huge crisis, so he will use nuclear weapons again and again. Threatening the other party is actually just emboldening oneself.

From this point of view, Putin’s current mentality is the same as that of Jin Sanpang’s repeated troubles with nuclear weapons. Not only does it not reflect his strength at all, but instead, people see his sarcasm and bravado.

Putin’s nuclear threat, of course, was told to the international community, and its intention was to intimidate NATO and the United States not to enter the war. As long as the international community does not directly intervene, he believes that with Russia’s strength, there is still hope to win Ukraine. Only in this way can he have the leverage to negotiate with the Ukrainian government and withdraw with dignity.

Does the threat of nuclear war work? How much is a little bit. Because we saw Biden reiterated in yesterday’s State of the Union address that the United States will not send troops to fight the Russian army in Ukraine. NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg has also publicly stated that NATO will not send troops or fighter jets to Ukraine to support the Ukrainian government. At the same time, NATO has also ruled out imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine, which by definition would invite conflict with Russian aircraft.

Even Polish President Andrzej Duda said in a statement that Poland would not send warplanes to Ukraine because doing so would be an “armed intervention”. Of course, Poland did not send fighters, they just sent all their MiG-29s directly to the Ukrainian Air Force.

Although these statements are strongly politically correct, their main intention is not to give Putin an excuse to escalate the war out of control. Although Ukraine seems to be in a critical situation, with the assistance of a large amount of economic and military equipment, it will not be easy for the Russian army to swallow Kyiv in one bite.

[Russia frequently leaks Putin’s internal instability]

Although the Russian army looks menacing at the moment, this steel mesh seems to have many holes. Yesterday, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko broadcasted a security meeting live on the web to demonstrate the style of his personal deployment and command.

As a result, it was found that on the operational map behind him, the Ukrainian territory was divided into four areas, which Ukrainian military bases were destroyed by the missiles launched by Belarus, and the route map of the troop transportation. The capital Kyiv and other important The hubs are also marked.

Experts point out that the map appears to show that the attack targets include Moldova, Ukraine’s southwestern neighbor, as well as Romania. Even the Belarusian journalist who was doing the broadcast blurted out that “this looks like an actual invasion plan”.

If it is said that Lukashenko became a pig teammate and leaked secrets unintentionally, then another type of leaks is more terrifying for Putin.

Just today, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense released a document leaked from the Russian army, showing that the invasion plan for Ukraine was approved on January 18, and the initial plan was to completely occupy Ukraine from February 20 to March 6.

Putin is indeed implementing this plan, because he officially recognized the independence of the two states of Luhansk and Donetsk from February 21 and sent troops there, officially kicking off the war of aggression against Ukraine. On the 20th the day before, the Beijing Winter Olympics had just ended, so the previous media report that Xi Jinping privately begged Putin not to invade during the Winter Olympics was accurate. Putin did save Xi Jinping a little face.

This involves the situation on the Ukraine side, and we will talk about it later.

Yesterday, Daninov, chairman of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, also disclosed an intelligence that an assassination attempt against Zelensky, directed by the Chechen leader Kadyrov, was foiled, and the intelligence came from the Russian Federation security forces. internal members of the Bureau.

The statement about the source of the intelligence here is very striking, because in general, the source of valuable confidential information will not be easily disclosed. This is common sense.

Therefore, Ukraine made no secret of saying that the news came from the Russian intelligence system. It is not ruled out that it is a form of information warfare, deliberately misleading the direction of the Russian investigation, or it may be another bold idea. The most dangerous place is the safest. I will say it publicly. Maybe you don’t doubt it.

[Ukrainian “people and” elements have an advantage]

As of 9:00 a.m. on March 2, the official statistics of the Russian army’s battle losses were released. The Russian army had lost 5,840 people, more than 200 tanks and nearly 900 infantry fighting vehicles, as well as at least 30 aircraft and the same number of helicopters.

How much Ukraine has lost itself, I have not seen credible figures at present, but in general, the battle loss ratio of the offensive and defensive sides is at least 3:1, and we can swagger up from the Russian military convoy for dozens of kilometers without fear From the bombing point of view, Ukraine’s lack of an effective mass destruction capability is also objective.

Anyone who has read Sun Tzu’s Art of War knows that the victory or defeat of a war has always been determined by the three elements of weather, location, and people. In terms of timing and geography, Russia and Ukraine are now roughly equal, and neither of them has an obvious advantage. However, in terms of the most crucial person and this factor, Ukraine’s advantage can be said to be overwhelming.

Yesterday, the European Parliament accepted Ukraine’s application for EU membership with 637 votes in favour, 13 against and 26 abstentions. When Zelensky delivered a speech at the European Parliament, the audience stood up and applauded. When the Russian Foreign Minister spoke at the International Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, he was greeted by a tidal wave of diplomats from many countries leaving the venue in stark contrast.

On the other hand, even on the battlefield where the two armies confront each other, Ukraine has an absolute advantage in terms of “people and people”. So far, we have seen quite a few live videos showing varying numbers of Russian troops voluntarily laying down their weapons and surrendering, but no Ukrainian soldiers have voluntarily surrendered.

Yesterday, near Kharkov, a large number of Russian soldiers voluntarily surrendered, and some of them even smiled at the camera.

In another video, after a hungry young Russian soldier surrendered, the local people enthusiastically brought pancakes and hot tea, and a woman called the soldier’s mother in front of him. In an instant, the soldier who was swallowing his mouth burst into tears and burst into tears.

The video was quickly circulated on major social media, with more than 800,000 views and 12,000 retweets on one Twitter account alone, touching countless netizens and showing the world that there is always humanity in cruel wars Brilliant flash.

Why is the morale of the Russian army so low? The Russian army was treated extremely poorly, eating expired food, and the death pension was only more than 100 US dollars, which was in huge contrast with the compensation that Ukraine paid to surrendering soldiers as high as more than 40,000 US dollars and the EU green card. This is only one aspect.

More importantly, on the other hand, we see that many Russian soldiers are very young. They probably don’t know why they came here to fight. They may have a hard time understanding why they went to the neighbor’s house to kill and set fire and then declare that This is for the safety of one’s own family. Why can one’s own house be bombed with machine guns and the neighbors are not allowed to have knives? So-called “demilitarization” is necessary?

All these questions show us a basic truth in warfare since ancient times: the success or failure of a war is determined by the back and forth of people’s hearts.

Therefore, from this perspective, Putin has already lost the battle, and he is doomed to a disastrous defeat both morally and strategically. Regardless of whether the Kyiv battle can be saved or not, the future Ukraine will no longer be “part of Russian history” as Putin said, but will become part of Ukrainian history.

[Financial war and cyber warfare escalate Putin’s unprecedented isolation]

Speaking of backlash, let’s briefly talk about another front, which is sanctions from the international community.

When it comes to sanctions, it will definitely not come as quickly as it does on the battlefield, right, but everything has advantages and disadvantages, and good and bad. Although there is no blood in financial sanctions, the breadth and depth of their impact are huge, even no less than the thermobaric bomb dropped by Putin.

Today, the Russian corporate giants had a dark day in London that they will never forget, and arguably so dark they could barely see their fingers.

The stock price of Russia’s largest bank in London was directly cleared, and the stock price of Sberbank fell by 99.99%! In addition, Russia’s so-called world‘s largest vertically integrated oil and gas company Lukoil shares fell 99.7%. Shares in Novatek, Russia’s largest independent natural gas producer, plunged 99.6 percent.

Such a scene can already be described as a horror movie, or in other words, this is also a real war, a financial war.

This is not over yet, the financial avalanche effect has spread to key real industrial fields. So far, we have seen Intel, AMD, and TSMC cut off chip supply to Russia; giants such as Apple, Microsoft, Dell, Boeing, and BMW have successively cut off their supply to Russia. Even Lenovo, a local computer giant in China, had to follow up sanctions with a bitter face and stop sales to Russia. And this may well be true to the once-popular saying: It’s just the beginning.

This is a very rare, full-scale attack launched by the entire international community against a regime. It is a real unrestricted war. From the government to the people, from traditional land, sea and air to modern virtual space and outer space From white to underworld, everything is covered.

Speaking of underworld, let’s take a simple example.

Anonymous, the world‘s largest hacker group, announced today that it has successfully paralyzed the control center of the Russian state space company Roscosmos, making it impossible for Russia to contact and control its own spy satellites. Before that, “Anonymous” has attacked and paralyzed at least more than 1,500 important websites in Russia.

In such an isolated situation, it is unbelievable that Russia actually sent four fighter jets to directly invade Sweden’s airspace today, and a helicopter invaded Japan’s airspace at the same time.

I believe that when Putin and Xi Jinping held a high-level drinking party and shook hands, they would never have imagined that they would face such a situation as today.

Under such a face-to-face blow, Putin has repeatedly issued unintelligible threats to use nuclear weapons, and at the same time firmly bound Xi Jinping, which is a matter of course. This involves the third aspect we are going to discuss today, that is, the situation of the CCP.

[Bound Beijing? The main points of the Russian side throwing Mandarin and Xi Jinping]

On February 25, the day after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin and Xi Jinping had a phone call, and both sides published relevant news on their official websites.

This news did not attract the attention of the outside world. It was not until the Russian Embassy in China shared the news again on the official WeChat account the day before yesterday (February 28), which attracted public attention.

In the Russian report, three main points were described:

1. Putin gave a detailed introduction to the implementation of the invasion plan, implying that it was going well and that he would soon go to Minsk to negotiate.

2. Xi Jinping agreed to closely coordinate and support each other with Putin, and “will never allow the use of illegal sanctions to achieve the self-interested goals of individual countries.”

3. It is implied that the two men had already fully discussed the invasion plan as early as the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics on February 4.

Comparing the official reports of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, we can see that only the first point is mentioned, and the latter two points are not mentioned at all.

Putin threw out this report through social media platforms three days after the incident and the situation changed dramatically, apparently for two purposes:

One is to let the whole world know that the invasion of Ukraine is the result of mutual consultation and mutual support between Russia and China, and that Putin is not fighting alone, which will surely bind Xi Jinping firmly and prevent him from jumping ship or defecting.

The other is to remind Xi Jinping that when Russia is subject to major sanctions, you must provide financial support and help me with the bottom line. This is what you promised.

The really key message here lies in the phrase “the leaders of the two countries emphasized the importance of strengthening bilateral pragmatic cooperation, taking into account the outcome of the talks between the two sides in Beijing on February 4.”

This sentence follows the content of Russia-China cooperation in opposing sanctions, so it is obvious that the two presidents have fully discussed the possible sanctions on February 4. Why discuss sanctions? Of course because Putin wants to act.

In other words, the Russian embassy in China disclosed the explosive information that “Xi Jinping knew we were going to invade Ukraine on February 4” in an implicit way.

On the evening of February 25, CCTV had temporarily inserted a news item “Xi Jinping and Putin talking” on the news network. The announcer Kang Hui read the manuscript with his head down. But at the time of the replay, that part has been removed.

Why is the CCP so sensitive to the phone call between Xi Jinping and Putin on the 25th? This may be the reason: If Xi Jinping was found to have known that Putin was going to invade Ukraine, he would no longer be a “pro-Russian neutral”, but an “accomplice in the invasion of Ukraine.”

This is no small matter, because it means that the avalanche-style full-dimensional attack that is sweeping is likely to involve the CCP as well. We have seen the CCP commemorate the 50th anniversary of the Sino-US Shanghai Communiqué suddenly in the past two days, and flatter the United States. I am afraid there is a reason for this small-scale calculation.

Okay, we’ll stop here today, thank you for watching and listening, see you next time.

“Foresight Quick Review” Production Team

Responsible editor: Li Hao#