Who will supposedly “win” the war in Ukraine? Now there is another voice via the t-online portal. The historian Jörg Baberowski, who is introduced there as “one of the leading historians of Eastern Europe,” probably assumes that Putin would win. He go assumed that “Russia (…) would not lose this war”.
Consequences for foreign policy in Germany
He assumed that Putin’s regime would be “stable”. Putin’s rule would not collapse. The government would know how to win over the population. The war was portrayed as a conflict with the West.
In addition, a large proportion of opposition members – meaning in Russia – would have left the country after the attack on their neighbor. Arms production would also be running at full speed, as the historian emphasizes.
The West’s sanctions would have no particular effect, it is clear from the words. Because Russia would simply bypass it. Responsible for this are “other states” that act as buyers. This certainly means countries like India or China. They would “compensate” for the loss of Western activity.
An advantage over Ukraine would be that the soldiers would not have to be mobilized, but that there would be financial incentives for recruiting them. The Russian soldiers would come particularly from rural regions. The population of the large metropolises would therefore see and hear little of this – so they simply remain quiet.
Ultimately, it now looks to him as if Putin actually has “everything he can get,” that is, he wants to have Ukraine as a whole – or “just what can be achieved militarily.”