Births, marriages and migrations: there are signs of recovery but it is not yet recovery. This is the picture that emerges from the Istat report on the demographic dynamics 2021. The demographic dynamics of 2021 in fact continue to be negative: as of December 31st the resident population is about 253 thousand lower than at the beginning of the year; in the two years of the pandemic, the population decline was almost 616 thousand, mainly due to the natural balance.
New record low for births, but slight signs of recovery at the end of the year
The births of the resident population in 2021 were just 399,431, a decrease of 1.3% compared to 2020 and almost 31% compared to 2008, the most recent year of relative maximum births. The decline in total births already observed in 2020 (-3.6% compared to 2019), however, is only partially due to the effects of the pandemic. The first effects on births referable to conception in March and April 2020 (first lockdown) can, in fact, be observed starting from the last two months of the year, especially in December 2020 (-10.7%) iv. The trend of births in 2021 allows us to have a more detailed picture of the consequences that the epidemic has had on the trend of births. The decline in births continues in the first two months of 2021: in January there is the maximum contraction at the national level (-13.4%), with a peak in the South (-15.0%). The decline continued in February, albeit to a lesser extent (-4.8%). The deficit of births in January 2021, among the largest ever recorded, leaves little doubt about the role played by the epidemic. The collapse of births between December 2020 and February 2021, to be referred to the lack of conception during the first pandemic wave, is a symptom of the postponement of the parenting plans which lasted more markedly in the first seven months, and then slowed down towards the end of the ‘year. Postponement of births is particularly pronounced among younger women. The illusory impression of overcoming the emergency perceived in May 2020 may have led to an increase in births in March 2021, a month in which a slight trend reversal is observed (+ 4.7%) compared to the same month of the previous year. ; these are births conceived during the beginning of the transition phase between the two epidemic waves of 2020. The increase is more sustained in the South (+ 11.1%), suggesting a recovery in the summer months of conception postponed in spring. The North-West is the only division that continues to show a negative variation, albeit much more contained than in previous months (-0.4%). The trend still remains weakly positive in April (+ 1.3% compared to the same month of the previous year), before returning negative especially in the months of June and July (respectively -5.7% and -5.5%), in correspondence with the conception that took place during the second epidemic wave. Geography also confirms the relationship with the unfolding of the second epidemic wave which, as is well known, most affected the central-southern regions. In June, the greatest decrease was observed in the Center (-8.0%) and in the South (-7.5%), while in July the most significant decrease was recorded in the Islands.
(-8,4%).
Less marked negative trend in births since August
Starting from August, the negative trend begins to be less marked, until the sign is definitely reversed in the months of November and December when there are significant increases in births compared to the same months of 2020 (respectively + 6.8% and + 13.5%). The recovery in November and December 2021, as already observed in March, also mainly concerns births to women aged 35 or over.
Strongly negative natural balance
Overall, the natural balance of the population is always strongly negative. Deaths still remain at high levels compared to the pre-Covid period. Positive signs for migratory movements, on the increase compared to 2020, and for marriages, which doubled in comparison with the previous year, but even in this decline the recovery is not enough to recover what was lost in the first year of the pandemic.
Migratory movements are recovering
In the course of 2021 there are a total of 1,743,216 registrations in the registry and 1,686,703 cancellations. By comparing the trend of migratory flows in the three pandemic phases into which 2021 can be conventionally divided (second wave, transition phase, third wave) with the average of the corresponding periods of the years 2015-2019, significant variations emerge. municipalities involved 1 million and 412 thousand people, + 5.9% compared to 2020. If we consider the average of the 2015-2019 period, the increase in internal transfers in the year 2021 is 3.9%. The increase was more contained during the second wave of the epidemic (+ 1.5%), due to mobility restrictions between regions that have minimized residential travel and during the last quarter (+ 1.4% ). In the transition phase, on the other hand, there is a more sustained recovery (+ 9.0%), again compared to the average for the period June-September 2015-2019. The repercussions have been much more relevant on international migratory movements.