Diplomacy in times of crisis requires not only skill and patience, but also the courage to explore unconventional paths.
In a crucial year for the United States government, the Biden administration seeks re-election using a multidimensional strategy. One that covers the management of the refugee crisis on the southern border; maintaining the price of fuel, with WTI-type oil in a range of 70 to 80 dollars per barrel; and a solution to the political crisis in Venezuela. This approach has created a high-stakes scenario for American diplomacy, aiming to realign geopolitical dynamics and confront urgent domestic and international challenges.
The Biden administration engaged in secret negotiations for more than a year with the Nicolás Maduro regime, scrapping the “maximum pressure” strategy of the Trump era. The dialogue aimed to lift sanctions on the oil and gas sector, whose exports provide 94% of the foreign currency that enters Venezuela in exchange for democratic reforms, including free elections and the release of unjustly detained US citizens. The agreement reached in Barbados in October last year suggested a possible thaw in relations between the US government and the Bolivarian regime, and a step towards the democratic restoration of Venezuela.
However, the White House’s optimism was short-lived. Maduro & Cía. They quickly undermined the agreement, ignoring the results of the opposition primary election in 2023 and reneging on the electoral commitment. This turn of events exposed Biden to criticism, especially for the suspension of economic sanctions and the controversial release of Colombian businessman Alex Saab – the main figurehead of the Miraflores clan – despite evidence that incriminates him in serious crimes, money laundering. assets, conspiracy to commit a crime, illicit enrichment, fictitious exports and imports, and aggravated fraud. At the same time, the Maduro regime intensified its authoritarian tactics, increasing repression against the opposition – especially against the leaders of Vente Venezuela, María Corina Machado’s party – and exacerbating territorial disputes with Guyana.
Maduro’s open challenge to Biden calls into question the US president’s ability to lead the world‘s leading power, especially before voters in the upcoming presidential election.
The Biden administration finds itself at a crossroads, as the Maduro regime challenges the agreement for democracy in Venezuela. Saab’s clemency pardon not only challenges Washington’s rhetoric on judicial independence, but also suggests that pressure tactics can result in impunity.
In response, the White House threatened to let the license that allows Maduro to obtain foreign currency from oil exports expire, to which the regime responded by cutting the program for receiving Venezuelan migrants repatriated from the United States.
At this critical moment, Biden is recalibrating his strategy, seeking effectiveness without resorting to maximum pressure, which he believes has been ineffective in Venezuela.
To save the Barbados agreement, the United States government has requested the mediation of the president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro. This effort seeks to overcome the current impasse and move towards a peaceful and democratic solution.
Brazil, another ally of Maduro, defended this Monday the continuity of the agreements for the elections in Venezuela, reaffirming the support of Brazil and the United States for the dialogue mediated by Norway.
The mediation of regional figures such as the president of Colombia and the support of Brazil highlight the complexity of the situation and the need to seek innovative solutions. These actions reflect a preference for diplomacy and negotiation, underscoring that any solution must be pragmatic and oriented towards tangible results.
The possibility of a meeting between María Corina Machado and Nicolás Maduro, facilitated by Petro, could be key to deescalating tensions and promoting a constructive dialogue.
In short, the situation in Venezuela is a significant challenge for the Biden administration, especially in a key election year in the United States. Regional leaders’ search for mediation and support from Brazil reflect an effort to balance diplomacy and negotiation as he confronts the usurper Maduro. The Biden administration’s ability to effectively handle this situation will have important implications for the future of Venezuela and the influence of the United States in the world today, highlighting the importance of adaptability and strategy in contemporary diplomacy.
The entry Maduro vs Biden: diplomacy and strategy in an election year was first published in EL NACIONAL.