New information on mass extinction has emerged from a recent study. Sergei Petrovsky of RUDN University and a colleague delved into the complexity of species extinction caused by climate change. Unlike other studies, they considered typically neglected factors: the inverse effect of vegetation on climate and the evolutionary adaptation of species to these changes.
Deciphering mass extinctions
Earth’s history has witnessed five significant mass extinctions. Although climate change is believed to be the main culprit, not all climate changes culminate in extinction. Petrovsky hypothesizes that some unknown factors or feedback systems dampen the effects of climate disruption.
Vital role of vegetation and adaptation
Vegetation plays a fundamental role, influencing the earth’s albedo, or the reflection of solar radiation. The study also highlights the neglected aspect of species adaptation. Through a mathematical lens, the researchers determined that a species’ fate depends on a balance: the magnitude of climate transformation versus the pace of its evolutionary response. Interestingly, species can experience a “false extinction,” in which populations decline but eventually recover.
Reconciling models with paleontology
Confirming their model with fossil data, the mathematicians found concordances in the extinction patterns. However, Petrovsky notes that fossils, especially of softer-bodied species, offer only a fragmented view of past extinctions, perhaps causing discrepancies between their model and the fossil evidence.
I study
The new model sheds light on the mass extinction puzzle, suggesting climate change as a potential instigator. The research uniquely takes into account the influence of vegetation on climate and how species adapt evolutionarily. The fate of a species, the researchers argue, depends on the balance between the extent of climate alterations and their evolutionary adjustments.
Notes and insights
A model of mass extinction accounting for the differential evolutionary response of species to a climate change – ScienceDirect (DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.114018)
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