According to foreign media reports,According to a recent report from the Public Health Service of England (PHE), more people die of COVID-19 after vaccination than those who have not been vaccinated.According to the report, of the 257 people who died within 28 days of testing positive for COVID-19 between February 1 and June 21, 163 (63.4%) received at least one dose of the vaccine. At first glance, this may seem shocking, but it is exactly as expected.
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Here is a simple thought experiment: imagine that everyone is now fully vaccinated against COVID-19-these vaccines are good, but they cannot save all lives. Some people infected with COVID-19 will still die. All these people will be fully vaccinated-100%. This does not mean that vaccines are ineffective in reducing deaths.
For every 7 years of age, the risk of dying from COVID-19 doubles. The difference between a 35-year-old and a 70-year-old is 35 years old, which means that the risk of death for older people is increased by 5 times-equivalent to a factor of 32 times. An unvaccinated 70-year-old is 32 times more likely to die of COVID-19 than a 35-year-old who has not been vaccinated. This age-varying risk profile means that even a good vaccine cannot reduce the risk of death in the elderly below that of some younger populations.
Data from Public Health England showed that after two doses of the vaccine, the risk of hospitalization due to the now dominant delta variant was reduced by approximately 96%. Even if it is conservatively assumed that vaccines are not more effective in preventing death than hospitalization (in fact they may be more effective in preventing death), this means that the risk of death for a fully vaccinated person has been reduced to an unvaccinated with the same basic risk Less than one-twentieth of the person.
However, the reduced risk brought by the vaccine is not enough to offset the 32-fold increase in the basic risk of death for a 70-year-old person compared to a 35-year-old person. There are some caveats to this simple calculation. The risk of infection is different for all age groups. At present, the youngest people have the highest infection rate, and the older people have a lower infection rate.
Think of it as “ball bearing rain”
One way to imagine the risks is that different sizes of “ball bearing rain” fall from the sky, among which the “ball bearing” is the person infected by COVID-19. For simplicity, the researchers assumed that the number of ball bearings in each age group is roughly equal. In each age group, the size of the ball also changes. The ball representing the elderly group is smaller, and the risk of death is higher.
Now imagine that there is a sieve that can catch many balls. Most people with COVID-19 will not die (most of the balls will be caught by the sieve). But some small balls will fall. The older you are, the more likely it is to fall into the hole. The balls that can pass the first sieve are greatly biased towards the older range. Before the COVID-19 vaccine appeared, the people who fell into the hole represented the people who would die of COVID-19. The risk is heavily tilted towards the elderly.
Vaccination provides a second sieve under the first sieve to prevent people from dying. This time, because there is no vaccine for everyone, the holes in the sieve are of different sizes. For elderly people who have already received two doses of the vaccine, the holes are smaller, so many balls are blocked. For young people, the current hole in the vaccine screen is larger because they are less likely to have received two doses of the vaccine, so they are more likely to fall into the screen.
If all the filtering is done by the second sieve (without the age-based mortality risk tilt represented by the first sieve), then it may be considered that young unvaccinated people account for a greater proportion of deaths proportion. but it is not the truth. The first sieve is heavily biased towards the elderly. Even if they are vaccinated, more of them will pass the second sieve than the unvaccinated young people. Given the UK’s vaccination strategy (vaccinate older and more vulnerable people first), one would think that a high percentage of people who die of COVID-19 have already been vaccinated. And this is exactly what we see in the data.
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