Gianclaudio Torlizzi, consultant of numerous Belluno companies, speaks. On Thursday he will talk about the supply crisis to the members of Confindustria
BELLUNO
“At the moment the raw materials sector is experiencing what I call the Covid of manufacturing.” The speaker is Gianclaudio Torlizzi, T-Commodity moraging director, consultant to numerous Belluno companies, called by Confindustria Dolomiti to take stock, next Thursday, on the supply and price crisis. A problem that directly or indirectly involves about 500 activities in the province.
The problem, therefore, is not only that of the arrival of the raw material with the dropper? There is more?
«We are in the presence of a combination of strong acceleration of Chinese growth, combined with the production slowdown that occurred in 2020, precisely as a result of the pandemic. This has laid the foundations for a sharp rise in raw materials, because China plays the role of the lion on the consumption front ”.
Is the theme, therefore, contingent only in appearance?
“Some dynamics are global and are destined to last at least 2-3 years.”
Businesses expect precise interventions from politics, or rather from governments. Which are actually possible?
“The shortage of the steel supply is aggravated by two elements. The first is the European safeguard measures that were enacted when the steel market was in an opposite condition, i.e. prices continued to fall and therefore producers lobbied Brussels to implement thresholds for extra-European imports to protect themselves from flood of Asian and Turkish products. Today, however, we are in a completely different condition. It will be important to understand what the Commission will decide in the coming weeks, given that it will have to decide whether to extend these rules which expire at the end of June or not ”.
The other possible interventions?
“There is the age-old problem of Ilva which does not contribute to calming the climate because it has halved production, from 6 million to 3.5 million and a half tons produced per year”.
In the coming months, therefore, what will happen, even here in the province?
«In the second part of this year it is probable to expect a downward consolidation of prices which, after having risen in the last 12 months, are currently showing signs of fatigue and should give way to a cooling phase. That will be the moment in which it will be necessary to intervene, blocking supply prices, because then we will have a general increase in prices in 2022 ».
Illustrate these increases.
«Hot rolled products, steel for example, went from 380 euros per ton to 900 per ton. Or copper has risen from $ 4,500 a ton to $ 9,600. And then there is the plastic ».
Which industries in the province use these raw materials?
«All those who are active in refrigeration and all the metalworking is clearly impacted. But this dynamic also concerns food raw materials, agricultural ones, oil and therefore has repercussions on the costs of the energy bill for businesses, gas and electricity ».
There are eyewear shops, but also other industries that plan the return relocation. They’re right?
«To get out of this situation, two things must be done: it is certainly necessary to increase the productions that are more geographically close to us, because in recent years the concept has matured that from“ just in time ”to“ just in case ”. What does this mean? It means that the attractiveness of long extra-continental supply chains is starting to be not so attractive for businesses. Surely reshoring can play a role even if it is easier said than done, it is a long process. The second area is to loosen the import thresholds, because the free market is preached so much, but it is not clear why we are super protectionists in some sectors, especially in a phase when it is not needed ».
Not needed? And for what reason?
“Because prices are skyrocketing and there is therefore no reason to maintain this protection in favor of steel mills where Italy now plays a marginal role”. –