Entering the El Niño Time: What High Temperature Tests Will We Face This Summer?
Hangzhou, China – As the summer season progresses, Zhejiang province in China braces itself for the arrival of high temperatures. With the lotus flowers in Hangzhou’s iconic West Lake set to bloom, tourists have flocked to the area despite scorching weather. The Provincial Meteorological Observatory has predicted that temperatures in many parts of the province will exceed 35°C in the near future.
Adding to the heatwave conditions, the World Meteorological Organization has announced the formation of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific region. This phenomenon is expected to further increase temperatures worldwide.
The province has already experienced an irregular rainy season, with delayed rainfall and significantly lower accumulation compared to usual. The lack of precipitation has been attributed to abnormal sea temperature changes in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which led to a shift in the position of the subtropical high and a northward movement of the Meiyu belt.
During the plum rainy season, high temperatures made an early appearance as the subtropical high influenced the region. From June 17 to July 9, the province saw an average of 7.8 days with temperatures above 35°C, exceeding previous years. With the arrival of Sanfu, the hottest period of the year lasting for 40 days, the Provincial Meteorological Observatory expects temperatures to reach 37°C to 39°C, with some areas exceeding 40°C.
Despite the current absence of typhoons, the province remains at risk as the subtropical high position continues to change, potentially causing an increase in tropical system activity. The Provincial Climate Center predicts a possibility of 3 to 5 typhoons affecting the province, with 1 to 2 having severe impacts or making landfall. The southeast coast is particularly vulnerable to severe typhoon impacts.
While global warming plays a significant role in increasing temperatures worldwide, the recent declaration of El Niño further exacerbates the situation. Since 1980, 10 out of the 12 recorded global average temperature highs occurred during El Niño years. However, the specific impact on Zhejiang province is still uncertain, as El Niño is still developing and the atmospheric circulation response is not yet sufficient. Typically, the province faces weather challenges such as high temperatures and increased rainfall the year following El Niño.
Despite the potential challenges brought by El Niño, Zhejiang province’s main test this summer will predominantly come from periodic high-temperature heatwaves. Central and western Zhejiang, as well as northern Zhejiang, may experience extreme high temperatures above 40°C, possibly leading to summer drought conditions. However, a large-scale and sustained extreme high-temperature event similar to last year is less likely.
As the El Niño and high-temperature challenges loom, the province is preparing measures to mitigate their impact. Authorities are advising residents and visitors to take necessary precautions, such as staying hydrated, avoiding prolonged exposure to the sun, and keeping cool in air-conditioned spaces. In the face of these weather challenges, the resilience and adaptability of the province will be put to the test.