«The President of the Draghi Council is clearly a resource for the country and is carrying out an important task in a delicate phase: to protect the country and effectively implement the recovery plan. A complex challenge in which we support it ». M5S leader Giuseppe Conte said this in an interview with the Dutch economic newspaper ‘Het Financieele Dagblad’. “The 5 Star Movement does not try to transfer him from Palazzo Chigi to the Quirinale”, continues the former premier, always speaking of Draghi. “Even if there is no doubt that the most suitable presidential candidate is someone of high morale, capable of reaching the ‘National unity. That’s all I can say about it. “
Unknowns
Many, indeed too many, the unknowns still in the field to allow the parties to predict at this stage what will happen during the voting for the election of the new Head of State. All the more so after Sergio Mattarella’s confirmed unavailability to an encore. Unknowns, but above all tactics typical of the pre-election phase, which make it difficult for political forces to establish a strategy right now, complete with counter-moves in case a “plan B” is needed. This does not mean that the leaders are not already in turmoil, beyond the official statements. The abacus is already compulsive and, for now, the only certainty is that neither the center-right nor the center-left, including the 5 stars, can be able to elect their own candidate on their own. But it will be necessary to involve in a possible “pact” also the so-called “minor” forces, starting with Italy alive, and above all the central area, which could play the role of needle of the balance.
Draghi
But the first knot to be solved, which according to various sources both in the center-left and in the center-right turns out to be decisive for any scenario, is what Mario Draghi intends to do: stay in Palazzo Chigi at least until the natural expiry of the legislature in 2023 or aspire to Colle higher? Until a “signal” arrives from the former governor of the ECB, it is the predominant opinion in the political palaces, it will be difficult to establish the individual moves to be implemented. Certainly today there are the words officially pronounced by Draghi in the various press conferences in which he was asked the direct question: “It is quite offensive towards the President of the Republic in office to start thinking in this way”, he replied to who asked him about his candidacy for the Colle banks advanced by some ministers.
Totonomi
Meanwhile, the totonomi has already started for weeks: the hypotheses that circulate range from Gianni Letta and Pier Ferdinando Casini to Marcello Pera (names on which the center-right could converge), and then Giuliano Amato and the owner of via Arenula Marta Cartabia. Then there is the name of Silvio Berlusconi, even if there is currently no official candidacy. Both Matteo Salvini and Giorgia Meloni consider it a plausible hypothesis, which they would certainly support. That the Hill is in the wishes of the Knight is not a mystery. But the center-right, if compact, including the minor forces of the center, would lack at least fifty votes out of a total of 1008 electors. In the first 3 secret ballots, two thirds of the votes of the Assembly will be needed. After the third ballot, an absolute majority is sufficient, equal to 505. The center-right on paper can count on at least 450 votes, while the center-left (including M5s) would start from a minimum of 420 votes, which rise to at least 460 if we also consider the renziani. The prevailing “party” at the moment is that of non-voting. That is, no solution that involves the early end of the legislature. It is a line that unites the parliamentary groups of different parties (even if the official position of the center-right is to go to the vote after the election of Mattarella’s successor).