Epoch Times16. January 2024
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has fired numerous missiles at targets in Iraq and Syria amid tensions in the Middle East.
The Iranian news agency Tasnim published a video in which several ballistic missiles rose and briefly lit up the night sky. “In response to the recent terrorist crimes committed by the enemies of Islamic Iran, spy centers and gatherings of anti-Iranian terrorist groups (…) were attacked and destroyed,” reads an initial IRGC statement.
On the night when rockets were fired from Iranian territory for the first time since the beginning of the Gaza war, fears of escalation are more present than ever before. The attacks with two dozen rockets were in retaliation for, among other things, the recent terrorist attacks in Iran and the killing of a high-ranking IRGC officer at the end of December, the IRGC web portal said. “We assure our beloved people that the Revolutionary Guard’s offensive operations will continue until the last drop of martyrs’ blood is avenged,” it said in a statement.
Rockets hit the northern Iraqi metropolis of Erbil, killing at least four people. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard described the target as a spy center for the Israeli secret service Mossad. A well-known businessman is said to be among the victims and, according to Iranian media reports, is suspected of having connections to Israel. In Syria, according to state media, extremists and supporters of the terrorist militia Islamic State (IS) were primarily attacked in Idlib province.
The attack was the country’s most far-reaching missile operation to date, covering a distance of more than 1,200 kilometers. This should also be a clear signal to the arch-enemy Israel. It would be roughly the same distance that rockets from the west of the country would need to reach Tel Aviv or Jerusalem.
Iran attacks targets in Pakistan with missiles and drones
According to its own statements, Iran also attacked targets in neighboring Pakistan with drones and missiles. The attack was aimed at the Islamist separatist group Jaish al-Adl, the Iranian news agency Tasnim reported on Telegram. Two important extremist bases were destroyed. The Sunni group had claimed responsibility for several attacks in southeast Iran.
Jaish al-Adl says he is fighting for independence in the Iranian province of Sistan and Balochistan. Most of the province’s residents follow the Sunni branch of Islam, in contrast to the Shiite state religion. There are always conflicts between the two Islamic currents. The United States and Iran have classified the group as a terrorist organization.
Von der Leyen calls on Iran to de-escalate
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called on Iran to de-escalate after attacks on targets in Syria and Iraq. The region is highly at risk, said von der Leyen on Tuesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Attacking targets in Iraq without any reason is “escalatory behavior.”
“In this respect, everything must be done to ensure that Iran also assumes its responsibility. “Iran is the one that controls many of the aggressive actions in the background,” said von der Leyen.
Gaza conflict fuels fears of regional war in the Middle East
More than three months after the start of the Gaza war, tensions in the region continue to rise. While Israel’s army is gradually withdrawing combat units from the coastal strip after intense fighting, the situation on the border in the north with the Lebanese Hezbollah militia has been threatening to escalate at any time for months.
The situation on the Red Sea and in Yemen has also been raising concerns since the militant Islamist Houthis have been attacking ships on the important sea route to Israel. The USA has already responded with air strikes on Houthi militia positions, which the militia has so far shown itself to be unimpressed by. The Houthis and Hezbollah are closely linked to Iran.
Experts and observers believe that the world is currently experiencing a dangerous shadow conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran. Shortly after the terrorist attack on Israel by the Islamist Hamas on October 7th, its leadership praised the attack as an act of resistance, but vehemently rejected any direct involvement. Instead, Iranian-allied Shiite militias in the region repeatedly attacked US bases in both Iraq and Syria. Tehran reiterates that it will not give orders. Rather, the groups acted autonomously, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hussein Amirabdollahian recently said.
From Tehran to Beirut: Iran’s “Axis of Resistance”
Since the 1979 revolution, the USA and Israel have been considered archenemies of the Islamic Republic. The Revolutionary Guards in particular have therefore expanded their influence in the region under their generals. Four years ago, the US killed one of the most powerful generals, Ghassem Soleimani, in a targeted drone strike in Baghdad. To this day, the former commander of the IRGC foreign unit is revered as a martyr among loyal system supporters.
At the end of December, an Iranian brigadier general, a confidant of Soleimani who, according to information from the New York Times, was said to have overseen arms deliveries to the Lebanese Hezbollah militia, was killed in a suspected Israeli airstrike in Syria. General Sejed-Rasi Mousavi was not in the public eye, but his assassination marked a setback for the IRGC. Iran’s military leadership vowed revenge on Israel.
Israel feels its existence is threatened
For years, Israeli politicians have been concerned about threatening tones from the government in Tehran, which denies the Jewish state the right to exist. Only shortly before the Hamas attack, Iran’s head of state Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated old threats against Israel and described the state as a cancer.
In addition to the threat posed by a massive missile and drone arsenal, Israel also fears Iran’s controversial nuclear program. The USA had repeatedly accused Tehran of striving for nuclear weapons. Iran denies the allegations and asserts that weapons of mass destruction are incompatible with Islam.
Rapproaches with Israel – will Tehran be marginalized?
Non-state allies are also important for Iran’s expansion and retention of power because Israel, its declared arch-enemy, is growing more strongly into the region. Bahrain, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates have normalized their relations with Israel in recent years. Saudi Arabia also held initial discussions about such a step under US mediation. The talks were suspended after the Gaza war began. However, Riyadh is still interested in such an agreement, which would be aimed primarily against Iran and China.
Tehran also normalized its relations with Saudi Arabia in 2023 after years of diplomatic ice age – but after an initial euphoria, the mood has cooled significantly. With the “coolly calculated” agreement, Iran wanted to prove that the country is not regionally isolated, said expert Barbara Slavin from the US think tank Stimson Center last fall. Saudi Arabia, in turn, wants Iran to provide “insurance against external attacks” as it tries to achieve its ambitious economic goals.
Experts do not see any new quality of escalation
According to experts, the Iranian government was under pressure in view of a devastating terrorist attack on the day Soleimani died in his hometown of Kerman and after the killing of Mousavi. Nevertheless, the rocket attack was not aimed at a complete escalation. Sina Azodi from George Washington University told Arabic broadcaster Al Jazeera that the rocket attacks were not a sign of a new regional escalation.
“The Iranians have repeatedly stated that they are not interested in escalating the conflict. But I think as long as the conflict in Gaza continues, we will see such actions,” the expert said. “My biggest concern is that there could be casualties in one of these attacks, including in the United States, which would force the United States to respond, and then it could escalate without anyone really wanting a war.” (dpa)