The 2024 Republican primaries have begun with former US President Donald Trump well ahead of his Republican opponents in key popularity measures, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll. The national poll found that Trump is well supported by Republicans and Republican-leaning independents on three metrics: having the best chance of winning in November, being a strong leader, and the most qualified candidate of the party.
Trump also leads his Republican opponents, albeit by a smaller margin, in two other attributes: empathy and shared values. The survey was conducted among members or supporters of the Republican Party and found that 72% of Republican-aligned adults would be satisfied with Trump as a candidate. Other potential candidates, such as Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, received lower scores in terms of satisfaction.
The poll also highlighted some notable differences among Republicans and GOP supporters. Those with a four-year college degree were less likely than non-graduates to say Trump is the best candidate in various attributes assessed, indicating a divide among the party’s base. White evangelical Protestants, a critical Republican group, also showed differences in their support for Trump and other candidates.
In contrast, a Biden-Trump general election would represent a battle between markedly unpopular candidates, as Biden’s approval rating as president has fallen to the lowest level for any president in the past 15 years, according to the same poll.
The Republican Party primaries kicked off with the Iowa caucuses on Monday, January 15. Trump emerged as the clear winner, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.S. ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy trailing behind. The results showed Trump’s continued preponderance within the Republican Party.
Looking ahead, the next voting will be on January 23 in the state of New Hampshire, followed by Nevada, the Virgin Islands, and South Carolina in February, and the Super Tuesday on March 5. These early results suggest a highly reactionary party supporting an old and alienated candidate, and the rise of fascism looms over the United States.
These latest developments set the stage for a contentious and closely-watched primary season, as Republicans look to solidify their candidate for the 2024 presidential election.