The cold shower for Joe Biden and the US left arrived on the afternoon of December 19 on the favorite channel of the right: on Fox News, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin said he was unwilling to support the $ 2,200 billion plan on which the president has staked a large part of his political program. Without his vote, the proposal cannot pass to Congress: since all fifty Republican senators would vote against and the Democrats cannot afford to lose a single vote. And without that provision it becomes practically impossible for the United States to do its part to contribute to the commitments made by the international community against the climate crisis (limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels).
The proposal Manchin opposes would be the largest climate spending plan in US history: $ 555 billion to finance the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources; 320 billion in tax incentives for companies that produce or buy energy from wind, solar and nuclear power; tax credits of up to $ 12,500 for those buying an electric car; six billion to improve the energy efficiency of buildings and another six to replace old gas boilers; tens of billions for research and development of new technologies to capture carbon dioxide. The chamber-approved version would expand existing tax credits to lower household costs to install solar panels, ground source heat pumps, and small wind turbines.
According to analysis by the Rhodium Group, Biden’s plan (called Build back better) would allow the United States to do half of what it takes to halve emissions by the end of this decade. Without a measure of this magnitude, Biden could use his presidential powers (especially executive orders and regulations) to reduce emissions in some sectors, but the impact would be almost insignificant compared to urgencies.
Childhood and inflation
It was immediately clear that convincing Manchin would be difficult. The senator represents West Virginia, a state historically linked to coal production where the idea of an energy transition is not popular at all. Since joining the Senate he has opposed any plan to reduce the use of fossil fuels. Someone pointed out that his political positions could be influenced by personal interests: in 2020 his coal brokerage firm earned him half a million dollars. In addition, West Virginia is one of the states most exposed to the risks of global warming, explained a New York Times article published by Internazionale a few weeks ago.
To overcome his resistance, the White House has tried them all. It has greatly reduced the total expenditure envisaged by the provision (which at the beginning was around 3,500 billion). It eliminated the Clean electricity performance program from the text, a measure that would have pushed electricity suppliers to abandon fossil fuels by favoring solar, wind or nuclear energy. He proposed introducing an emissions tax, but Manchin still said no.
Manchin does not even like some of the other measures contained in the provision, particularly those designed to extend the US social safety net and welfare to that of other Western countries. Apparently in recent weeks, the senator has privately expressed concern that families could use the money earmarked for childcare – a key measure of the bill – to buy drugs. And that many Americans, especially in West Virginia, would take advantage of paid leave to go hunting.
To these concerns in recent weeks have been added those concerning the instability of the economic cycle. According to Manchin, the measure would not only further increase public debt but would further increase inflation, a trend that already worries economists today and is used by Republicans to attack the economic policies of the Biden administration. Most experts believe that Manchin’s fears are unfounded, because the Build Back Better measure is not an economic stimulus and does not put enough money in the pockets of citizens to push prices up further. Over the next few weeks Biden will try to reassure Manchin about inflation and offer him further concessions to get him to vote with the rest of the majority.
The endless debate over this provision is already hurting the Democrats and the Biden administration, as it brings to light all the divisions between the moderate and the more progressive wing. If an agreement is ultimately not reached, the party will arrive weakened in the mid-term elections, increasing the chances of Republicans taking control of at least one of the two branches of congress. And the United States would miss a perhaps once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to do something important against the climate crisis.
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