The International Cancer Research Center (IARC), an agency of the World Health Organization (WHO), foresees more than 35 million new cases of cancer in 2050.
This represents an increase of 77 percent compared to 20 millions of cases estimated in 2022.
The rapid growth in the global cancer burden reflects both aging and population growth, as well as changes in people’s exposure to risk factors.
Tobacco, alcohol and obesity are key factors in the increase in cancer incidence, while air pollution remains one of the main environmental risk factors.
In terms of absolute burden, high HDI countries are expected to experience the largest absolute increase in incidence, with an additional 4.8 million new cases predicted in 2050 compared to 2022 estimates.
However, the proportional increase in incidence It is more striking in countries with a low Human Development Index (HDI) (142% increase) and in those with a medium HDI (99%).
Likewise, cancer mortality in these countries is expected to almost double by 2050.
“Countries with the fewest resources to deal with their cancer burden will be the most affected,” says Dr Freddie Bray, head of the Cancer Surveillance Branch at IARC.
Thus, the CIIC has calculated that in 2022 there will be 20 million new cases of cancer and 9.7 million deaths, which represents an increase in the global burden of cancer.
Higher incidence, according to the WHO
According to WHO estimates, there were three major types of cancer in 2022: lung, breast and colorectal.
“Lung cancer is the most common cancer in the world, with about 2.5 million new cases, that is, about 12 percent of the total new cases worldwide. Breast cancer follows very closely, with 2.3 million cases,” said Bray.
Behind them are colorectal cancer, prostate cancer and stomach cancer.
For men, prostate and colorectal cancers were the second and third most common cancers, while liver and colorectal cancers were the second and third most common causes of cancer death.
In women, lung and colorectal cancer ranked second and third in both number of new cases and deaths.
Cervical cancer was the eighth most common cancer worldwide and the ninth cause of cancer death, with 661,044 new cases and 348,186 deaths. It is the most common cancer among women in 25 countries, many of which are in sub-Saharan Africa.
In terms of mortality, lung cancer is also the main cause of death from cancer, with 1.8 million deaths, that is, 19 percent of the total. This is followed by colorectal cancer, liver cancer, breast cancer and stomach cancer. “According to these new estimates, around 1 in 5 people develop cancer during their lifetime,” Bray warned.
Thus, on the date analyzed, the estimated number of people who were alive in the 5 years following a cancer diagnosis was 53.5 million.