01 July 2022 09:59
Tunisia has been living in a state of suspension for almost a year, since President Kais Saied paralyzed political life by assuming full powers. Initially this particular situation was supposed to last for a month, but later Saied closed the parliament, ruled by decrees and announced that he would present a draft of a new constitution to the people on July 25 this year.
On the evening of June 30, the draft of the new charter was published. If approved in a referendum, it will transform Tunisia into a presidential regime. This is Saied’s political logic as well as his way of responding to the disenchantment of a decade of unsuccessful revolution.
In several respects, Saied’s constitution is the antithesis of that of 2014, produced by a constituent assembly elected after the 2011 revolution and based on a balance between the president and parliament to avoid the centralization of authoritarian powers that had characterized the years of the dictatorship of Zine el Abidine Ben Ali.
Constant authoritarianism
This imperfect balance of power has been a source of paralysis and conflict, arousing constant rejection by the population. A year ago Saied, taking advantage of his prerogatives as president, suspended the constitution, and his move was greeted with exultation by a part of Tunisians who rejected a democratic but ineffective political system, and in particular the Islamist party Ennahdha, al center of political mechanisms.
The problems stem from Saied’s line and style. The Tunisian president cited the phrase with which the French general Charles de Gaulle claimed that at his age he would not have pursued a career as a dictator, but his critics reproach him for constant authoritarianism, recalling his attacks on the magistrates, the fake national dialogue that it preceded the drafting of the constitution and the appointment of the members of the electoral commission, which by now has only the name of independent.
A large part of the population is asking above all for solutions to the economic and social crisis
Saied does not trust parties and the concept of “civil society”, and speaks directly to the “people”. Even if the magic of the 2019 election campaign has vanished, the president still retains the confidence of a not inconsiderable part of the population.
Is it possible that Saied loses the referendum? The risk is minimal. First of all, if it is true that the most politicized Tunisians criticize the president and will certainly vote “no”, we must keep in mind the indifference of a large part of the population, who above all ask for solutions to the economic and social crisis accentuated by the covid and the increase in prices. .
The president, with his cultural and social conservatism, refers to the traditional values of deep Tunisia. From this point of view, the new constitution contains a change that will cause debate: the reference to Islam as the religion of the state has been removed, placing Tunisia within the framework of the Umma, the Islamic nation. The state, therefore, will have the task of pursuing the objectives of the Umma.
Those who in the early stages of the project had noticed the disappearance of the state religion were clearly wrong: Saied is not a secular, but a conservative Muslim, opposed to the political Islam of the Muslim Brotherhood, to whom he prefers cultural Islam of which his constitution is impregnated.
Saied is taking Tunisia in a different direction from that followed in the last decade: the population hopes it is towards the best, but the intellectuals fear the worst, that is, the return of the dictatorship.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)
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