The target of 80% of vaccinated over 12s is now very close and will be reached even earlier than expected, that is, before the end of September. But the achievement of the goal indicated at the beginning of the campaign by Commissioner Figliuolo to achieve the coveted herd immunity is not judged sufficient by the CTS scientists and by that part of the Government that fully supports Draghi’s intention to arrive, if necessary, to the mandatory vaccine for all.
The Delta variant changes plans
The Delta variant, 50% more contagious and also more dangerous (the first data say it causes more hospitalizations), has changed the scenario also because the vaccine shield works, but does not completely stop the infection even among those who are fully immunized. This is why the bar has been moved higher than the 80% indicated at the beginning of the pandemic.
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In fact, the Ministry of Health thinks about a threshold of at least 90% of immunized people over 12, a number deemed sufficient to be able to manage the epidemic without too many repercussions on the hospital system, while the hypothesis of completely eradicating the virus by now it is considered a mission impossible. The most plausible scenario, if the vaccine shield continues to work, is in fact that of moving from a pandemic to an “endemic” that will allow us to live with the virus.
When will the vaccination obligation start?
For this reason, the reasoning is simple: if 90% of vaccinated people are not reached by the end of the year – also thanks to the push of the extension of the use of the green pass to which the Government works closely – then it will be possible to resort to the vaccination obligation. evoked by Prime Minister Draghi. In short, a last resort in the case of the effect of the new green passes – which could become mandatory for the employees of the Public Administration and for all those workers in the sectors in which the green certificate is requested from customers today does not drag vaccinations up very much. Especially among the over 50s where 3.7 million have not yet received even a dose.
Alternative options
Among the alternative options to the study is the possibility of making the vaccine mandatory for other certain categories after that of health professionals where it is already in force: from the police forces to the rest of the PA employees. Another option could be to provide for the obligation only for the over 50s, the category most at risk.