The fast pace of the vaccination campaign (1.2 million doses on the weekend of 5 and 6 June) brings herd immunity closer: for the Covid emergency commissioner Francesco Figliuolo the goal is “to vaccinate 80% of the population by September”. According to the projections of Lab24 with the cruising speed of the last week it would take 89 days to cover 70% of the population. The result would be reached on 4 September. With the inevitable differences between Regions: six would cross the finish line by August (with Campania in the lead), all the others in September with the exception of the Province of Trento, the only one to postpone in October.
The primacy of Campania
If the supply of vaccines now seems guaranteed (approximately 4.1 million doses are expected to arrive this week), the speed of the vaccination campaign could be affected by the adhesion of citizens to be immunized with the consequent rate of administration that at the moment it stands at 90% (ratio between delivered doses and inoculated vaccines).
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Without jolts and unforeseen events, the first region to achieve “community immunity” would be on August 20 th Campania, 65 thousand vaccines administered per 100 thousand inhabitants and a member of the group of regions destined to return to the white band only on 21 June. However, some uncertainties related to the distribution of doses weigh on the new phase of the vaccination campaign open to everyone, including children and adolescents. “We are the youngest Region in Italy – said the Campania president Vincenzo De Luca -, in the 12-21 year range we have the highest number of inhabitants in Italy and, therefore, we asked for an anticipation of vaccines to administer them to all the student population. Let’s see ».
Five more regions in safety in August
Together with Campania, five other regions could immunize 70% of their population by August: it is Lombardy e Abruzzo (24 August, “we hope to have herd immunity by mid-August” is instead the prediction of the president of the region, Marco Marsilio), Puglia (August 26), Molise (August 29) and Lazio (August 30). Molise has been in the “white band” since June 1, Abruzzo since June 7, while to see the anti-Covid restrictions on their territories lifted, Lombardy, Puglia and Lazio will have to wait until June 14.
Above average also Basilicata, Friuli and Marche
In the first week of September (more exactly on day 1) also the Basilicata could join the club of the Regions that have secured their population. They will be able to say the same a few days after the Friuli Venezia Giulia (in the white zone as early as June 1st together with Molise and Sardinia) e Market (September 4). For all other regions, the result will come only after 4 September, the national average.