“In Italy, thanks to the good performance of the vaccination campaign and the improvement of the health framework, the economic recovery is consolidating” and according to the estimates of the Bank of Italy that will come out on July 16, the GDP “would strengthen decisively in the second half of the year ; on average for the year it could touch values of around 5 per cent, allowing for a recovery of more than half of the fall in output recorded in 2020 ». Confirmation of the forecast of sustained economic growth came from the Governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, in his report to the ABI Annual Assembly.
“Consolidation also in the next two years”
“With the support of budgetary policy, including measures financed with European funds, and the maintenance of favorable monetary and financial conditions, the expansionary phase should consolidate, remaining sustained also for the next two years,” added Visco. On the basis of current forecasts, the recovery underway, he added, “would be favored by the lively dynamics of investments; the recovery of consumption would be slower, with a gradual recovery from the high savings rates caused by the pandemic; exports of goods would benefit from the acceleration of foreign demand ».
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But the risks remain: vaccines and possible delays in the NRP
Certainly there is still a high level of “uncertainty” regarding the recovery of the economy. «This scenario assumes that the vaccination campaign continues at the current pace and that the containment of infections is consolidated; delays in the implementation of the recovery measures envisaged by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRP) could weaken, also due to the negative effects on business and household confidence, the prospects for aggregate demand and employment ”, warns Visco.