[Epoch Times, July 28, 2021]On July 26, during the Sino-US Tianjin talks, Xie Feng, Vice Foreign Minister of the Communist Party of China, proposed to the US Deputy Secretary of State Sherman “Two Correction Checklists”, and then Wang Yi made it clear China’s “three bottom lines” for Sino-US relations. Lu media and some media claimed that “this move by China is unprecedented”. This is the first time that China has drawn a “red line” for Sino-US relations and has clearly proposed remedial measures to the US to repair relations.
The Tianjin talks are in line with the China-US Alaska talks on March 18-19. Since the Biden administration came to power, the CCP has taken such a tough posture. why? This article talks about three points.
First, the CCP uses the “Frightening Word Jue” to make up for its lack of strength.
No matter how much talk about “rising in the east and falling in the west”, the power gap between China and the United States lies there. The anxiety and guilty conscience of the CCP authorities cannot be hidden. In an interview on July 9, the Chinese Communist Party’s Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng made it clear that the United States is still the world’s largest and powerful country, and it will be difficult to surpass it for a long time.
The Biden administration certainly knows this. On July 21, US State Department Spokesperson Price said that Sherman would fly “from a position of strength” to China for talks, just like Secretary of State Blincol’s on his way back from the Indo-Pacific region. Anchorage met with Yang Jiechi and other Chinese representatives.
The CCP is deeply humiliated by this, but, after all, it has to ask for the United States. Therefore, in March, after all, Yang Jiechi and Wang Yi ran to Alaska; similarly, the CCP finally compromised on Sherman’s Asia trip and put the visit to China on the agenda at the last moment.
From this, it is not difficult to see whether it is Yang Jiechi’s rhetoric in the Alaska talks, “You are not qualified to say in front of China, you talk to China from a position of strength”, or the “two error correction lists” and the Tianjin talks. The “Three Bottom Lines” all show the CCP’s fierceness. The CCP is inherently the most sensitive to strength and only worships strength. In the case of insufficient strength, the routine is “one scare, two tricks and three tricks.” The CCP’s tough posture deliberately is a performance of “Frightening Words.” In particular, this year is the year of the CCP’s “100th Anniversary of the Party,” and the authorities have repeatedly claimed to be “strengthening”, and Xi Jinping is still facing the pressure of three consecutive terms, so the “Frightening Jue” must be pronounced louder.
Second, the CCP’s diplomatic operation is deadlocked and lacks the ability to turn around.
The CCP can certainly make up for its lack of strength by “Scaring Word Jue”, but “Scaring Word Jue” can’t do its best and must leave room for it. However, judging from the current situation, “Scaring Word Jue” has gone too far (marks). It is a significant jump in the Sino-US military confrontation). The CCP is “smart and wronged by cleverness.” Why is it so? A key reason is the deadlock of the CCP’s diplomatic operations.
After the 2008 financial crisis, the CCP was full of confidence. In 2010, China became the second largest economy in the world. At the end of 2012, when Xi Jinping came to power, the CCP claimed to have entered a “new era,” and began to bid farewell to “hide one’s capacity and bide time” (the so-called “the elephant can’t be hidden in the room”) and chanted “Great Power Diplomacy”. As a result, the CCP’s global ambitions were revealed, vigorously developing its strategic military power, and taking an offensive against the United States. In the later period of the Obama administration, it has already clearly felt the threat of the CCP and has begun to adjust its China policy. After Trump came to power, the historic turning point of the U.S. policy toward China, from the trade war in 2018 to the new cold war in 2020, opened up a new era of countering the CCP.
Against this background, the Biden administration came to power and reassessed its China policy (which may be close to completion at the moment). During the evaluation period, it can only continue most of the Trump administration’s China policy; although in some areas, the strength of the opposition to the CCP is even greater. Bigger, but also just for the occasion. This actually gave the CCP a chance to transform Sino-US relations.
However, due to the rigidity of its diplomatic operations, the CCP did not seize this opportunity to engage in a “united front” and use the soft side to influence the restructuring of the Biden administration’s China policy, but just blindly use it to force the Biden administration to abandon it. In the end, the government’s line towards China can only be its own destiny. (I want to point out that in a free, open, and competitive society like the United States, even if the CCP seizes the handle of certain members of the Biden administration, how can the Biden administration be controlled by the CCP?)
Historically, the CCP was very good at engaging in the “united front”, and even referred to the “united front” as one of its “three magic weapons.” The power of the CCP’s “united front” successfully allowed the United States to terminate the Chiang Kai-shek government during the Kuomintang and Communist Civil War. The military assistance of the People’s Republic of China allowed Nixon to visit China at the moment of crisis after Lin Biao’s “September 13th” Incident. After the “June 4th” massacre, the US-led Western sanctions were defeated and quickly dismantled. However, today, the fortune is over. Change, the CCP ran at the end and lost its former flexibility. Amid the decay of the system and the arrogance of officials, the “united front” has become a “front” without “unification,” and the CCP has become a lonely family.
Third, the Biden administration’s “cooperation-competition-confrontation” policy toward China is considered by the CCP to be deceived.
In 2020, the CCP used the epidemic to seek hegemony, the Trump administration started a new cold war, and high-level contacts between the United States and China were interrupted for a while. After the Biden administration came to power, its China policy began to adjust. The first is the resumption of high-level contacts between the United States and China, and only then did the China-US Alaska talks and the Tianjin talks.
More importantly, the Biden administration put forward three basic points of its China policy: it is competitive when it should be, it is cooperative when it is possible, and it is confrontational when it is necessary. This is far from the Trump administration’s “fairness and reciprocity” principle and the “distrust plus verification” approach.
For example, Ryan Hass of the Brookings Institution in the United States pointed out that although the Biden administration’s China policy continues many of the Trump administration’s practices, there are still some notable differences. First, there is no longer any discussion of a comprehensive economic decoupling between the United States and China. Second, no longer talk about the Thucydides trap or the inability of the United States and China to coexist. On the contrary, the Biden administration is talking about cooperative competition or competitive coexistence or competitive interdependence; this is a rather significant change. Third, Biden has always described China (the CCP) as a competitor, not an enemy. Fourth, no one in this administration clearly distinguishes the Chinese Communist Party from the Chinese people like the previous administration, and has resumed direct diplomacy on climate, Afghanistan, Iran, and other issues.
These policy changes of the Biden administration were seen by the CCP one by one, which greatly contributed to the CCP’s arrogance. The CCP may judge that some of the Biden administration’s China policies are on the surface, just to gain attention and build momentum for cyclical elections; although the United States is still the only superpower, its internal contradictions are numerous and its hegemony is declining. The CCP will It will surpass the United States in the future, and this time will not be too long; global issues and the US-China economy are already tied together, which makes the United States sure to demand the CCP, and the CCP can make great use of this to threaten the United States.
To sum up, the “scare character formula” is used to make up for the shortcomings of its own strength, the diplomatic operation is deadlocked, the lack of transfer capabilities, and the Biden administration’s “cooperation-competition-confrontation” policy toward China can be exploited. These are the three main reasons. The reason is that the Chinese authorities decided to wrestle with the Biden administration. So far, the CCP has no intention of stopping. Wrestling continues, what will happen, and whether the Biden administration will change its tricks, we will wait and see.
Editor in charge: Gao Yi#