issuing time:
China announced on Tuesday, January 17, 2023 that its population will decline in 2022 for the first time since the 1960s. China will face demographic challenges in the coming years, with a shrinking and aging population. Why is China facing a serious population crisis? This is a question that Le Ouest has recently focused on.
According to United Nations forecasts, India will overtake China this year to become the world‘s most populous country.
China’s population will shrink by 850,000 by 2022, according to data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday, January 17. The number of deaths in 2022 will be 10.41 million, which is higher than the number of births of 9.56 million.
Le Ouest also pointed out that since the famine in 1960, the population of China has declined for the first time. This population erosion was already expected, but it happened sooner than expected. In 2019, the United Nations still believes that China will reach its population peak in 2031-2032. But the decline starts in 2022.
Evolution of China’s population in 2022 China’s population decline:
India will overtake China this year to become the world‘s most populous country, according to a United Nations forecast.
In 2100, China will have 587 million residents? The population decline that has already begun should continue. United Nations projections and a Chinese study forecast sharp declines throughout the century.
According to the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, China’s population could halve by 2100 and then reach 587 million residents. The different scenarios forecast by the United Nations all follow the same trend.
According to UN projections, China’s population will decrease by 2100 regardless of the scenarios considered. China will have 766 million inhabitants in 2100 according to the medium scenario, 1.15 billion according to the high scenario, and 488 million according to the low scenario.
Population Aging: The main reason for China’s population decline is the decline in fertility rate, which will drop to 1.15 children per woman in 2021. The generation update threshold is 2.1.
This decline has occurred in the context of the loosening of the one-child policy. Ten years ago, the Chinese could only have one child. From 2021, they can have three children.
But despite the many subsidies offered, the Chinese are still reluctant to have children. Because the cost of living has risen sharply, especially the cost of raising children. Higher educational attainment among women also contributes to delayed pregnancy.
The one-child policy also helped foster a cultural habit of small families. Due to declining birth rates, the age pyramid should expand upwards in the coming years:
Economic Weight Declining and aging population is likely to weigh heavily on the Chinese economy in the coming decades. In fact, by 2080, the number of working-age people (15-64 years old) is expected to be lower than the number of people over 65 years old, according to the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.
In China, by 2080, the working-age population will become a minority.
Declining and aging populations between today and 2100 […] It will have a profound impact on the Chinese economy, warned Peng Xiujian, a researcher specializing in Chinese demography at the University of Victoria (Australia).
A decline in the labor force means rising labor costs, which will affect China’s competitiveness in the global market, she said.
According to his team’s projections, pension payments could reach 20% of GDP by 2100 — up from 4% in 2020 — without reform of the pension system. An aging population will also lead to increasing care costs for the elderly, which will put pressure on the working population.