On January 1, the centenary of the Turkish republic will be celebrated. In many ways 2023 will be a momentous year, because it will also be an election year. The anniversary is one of the five key reasons President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will be re-elected. A victory for him in the centenary year would send the message that the new Turkey – as opposed to the old one created by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk – is here to last. This achievement would mark the culmination of the de-Westernization of the regime.
The president will be forced to win the election because otherwise he will have to answer serious charges of corruption and violation of the constitution in court during his twenty-year term. And he may have problems with the International Criminal Court for military campaigns in neighboring countries. He can’t take that risk.
The masses who support the regime are in favor of dictatorial systems of government. Furthermore, even if economically dissatisfied, they see no alternative
His re-election is also likely due to the limitations of the opposition which, with the obvious exception of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), is incapable of putting together a united front behind a strong candidate. No leader has emerged who can match Erdoğan’s charisma, which appeals not only to his electorate. Furthermore, the opposition’s program is based on two arguments: getting rid of the president and distancing itself from the HDP or the Kurds in general. This is not enough to convince dissatisfied citizens, especially young people.
Another reason is Erdoğan’s electorate, whose motivations cannot be reduced to a kind of utilitarianism based on clientelism and the subsidies that the regime has bestowed over the years. People who support the regime agree with the dictatorial methods of the rulers. Furthermore, even if economically disaffected, they see no alternative to Erdoğan.
The other reasons behind the president’s inevitable success lie in external support. Middle East oil dynasties and Russian President Vladimir Putin have pledged to back Erdoğan and the struggling Turkish economy to ensure his re-election. Looking at the country’s accounts, there is a suspicion that a lot of hidden funding is coming. The most interested is Putin, who has a golden opportunity to continue sowing discord in NATO.
But it’s not just the autocracies that are backing Erdoğan. The West indirectly supports it by turning a blind eye to the aggressive behavior of the regime inside and outside Turkey, to “keep” the country in NATO. Erdoğan’s extravagance, his eternal victimization, threats to Greece and military operations against the Kurds are forgiven.
Another reason lies in the complex electoral engineering, which leaves nothing to chance. This includes aspects such as bureaucracy, constituencies and related regulations. The Supreme Electoral Council (Ysk) is appointing pro-regime judges. The chairmen of the electoral commissions will also be composed of government-appointed judges. The polls and commissions, therefore, will be under Erdoğan’s direct control.
The council and the electoral commissions will be able to use any pretext for not admitting a candidate. This would prevent the opposition from participating in elections in certain constituencies. As for the counting of votes, the council worked with a Turkish defense and software company, Havelsan. You don’t need a crystal ball to predict the outcome.
Furthermore, the fact that Süleyman Soylu has been confirmed in the interior ministry and that a loyalist of Erdoğan, Bekir Bozdağ, has remained in justice allows the government to firmly control the system and the country. The attack in the center of Istanbul last November 14, probably masterminded by the Soylu apparatus, portends future violence. The regime’s unofficial militias will also be ready to intervene on election days.
Finally, the government is aware that there is little consensus among generation z, those born between 1992 and 2012, who are sensitive to climate change, LGBT rights, animal rights and so on. It is in the light of this fear that the Interior Ministry’s opposition to the creation of the Green Party must be understood. The law on the censorship of social networks should be read with the same logic. The electoral campaign will once again favor the regime thanks to the main source of information for the Turks: television.
Erdoğan became an elected dictator after the regime reform that in 2018 created a presidential system without checks and balances. This means that there are people who happily elect their dictator. And the rest of the electorate grumbles but finally bows down, in despair, to the dictator and his regime. ◆ ns
Cengiz Aktar is a Turkish essayist and professor of political science at the University of Athens. His latest book published in Italy is The Turkish malaise (The Canneto 2022).