The labor market does not seem to be affected (at all) yet by the difficulties in progress, linked to price increases and problems in supplies due to the war between Russia and Ukraine. In February, somewhat surprisingly, the number of employees recorded an increase of 81 thousand units compared to January. Istat, in the provisional employment data (relative to the month of February) released yesterday, also certified -30 thousand unemployed (again in the economic comparison), with the unemployment rate dropped to 8.5% (24.2% among the under25) and -79 thousand inactive. However, the climate of uncertainty that is characterizing the period is beginning to be seen: the growth in employees over the month is in fact entirely attributable to fixed-term relationships (+ 133 thousand units) and to the self-employed (56 thousand more self-employed in January), while permanent work, indefinitely, it literally collapsed (-109 thousand positions).
The positive sign of the employed in February, after two months of substantial stability, brings the employment rate to 59.6%, +0.6 points compared to pre-pandemic levels (in February 2020 the employment rate was 59% – at absolute levels we are still with 91 thousand fewer employees). In any case, 59.6% is the highest employment rate recorded since the start of the Istat historical series (but there are still large gaps: the employment rate of men is 68.7%, that of women is only slightly greater than 50%, 50.4% to be exact – there is a distance of over 18 percentage points).
Compared to January 2021, there are almost 850 thousand more employees; more than half are temporary employees with an estimate of nearly 3 million and 200 thousand units, the highest value since 1977 (but the share of temporary employees is about 14% of the total employed, 17% of dependent employment, values absolutely in line at an international level). Also in comparison with the pre-pandemic levels (February 2020), the unemployment rate fell from 9.6% to 8.5% while the inactivity rate, at 34.8%, is higher by 0.2 points.
The photograph of young people is in the dark: the unemployment rate in the under 25 group has dropped to 24.2% (-8.4 points over the year), but we remain at the bottom of the international rankings, worse than Italy, he reminded us Eurostat, Greece (31.1% youth unemployment rate) and Spain (29.8%), and we remain very far from the top of the class, Germany, stable at 5.7% thanks to the dual training system that here you can’t get off the ground.
The effects linked to the war between Russia and Ukraine will probably be seen on the Italian labor market in the coming months as one of the most direct effects of the slowdown in the economy (the main estimates indicate the first half of the year); the industrial sectors are in fact the first to have suffered with a reduction in activities and hours worked due to the resumption of layoffs. Services will subsequently suffer, and here, despite the new regulations on shock absorbers in force since January, there is a risk of a contraction in employment.